2009 Summer Movie Pool

9/3/09

Back at the beginning of the summer I said that the cutoff for Top 10 would probably be around $140 million. Well I wasn't too far off, as this year it was $133.4 million. G.I. Joe wasn't able to get it done, earning just $583,000 on Monday to finish only $700,000 behind Angels & Demons, and that left us with a 14-way tie for 1st Place with 8 correct picks! But we obviously had the perfect tiebreaker in place with Deviation Scores all over the place. Here are the final results of the tiebreaker:

Steve 16
Gretchen 22
Laura 23
David L. 25
Shegun 27
Lafaro 28
Kurt 28
Butters 30
Catie 31
Ed 33
Sponge 35
David G. 35
George 36
Justin 43

With 4 movies picked in their correct spots, I was able to win the Pool for the 6th time in 12 years (ending a 2-year hiatus). I was also only off the mark for 2 of my films, with a 7-pointer and 4-pointer as my biggest hits. Gretchen was nearly as impressive, as none of her films in the Top 10 finished more than a single point off. The difference, however, was an 8-pointer and a 7-pointer for her bottom 2 selections. But that was still good enough to edge out Laura for 2nd Place. Poor Laura. Once again she finished tied for first, but still lost out by the tiebreaker. As for everyone else who got 8, it was interesting to see what movies crippled their chances. 9 people may have been hurt by selecting Public Enemies, but it was Terminator that stung the most, with the average placement for it as 4th (it finished 12th). 2 people even picked it to finish #1! And let's not overlook the worst selection by any of these tiebreaker players. That honor goes to Justin (last year's winner) with his selection of Year One (good for a 16-point bomb). Nice job!

No one in the pool picked The Hangover, which only cost $30 million, but grossed $270 million (good for 4th this summer). It's fitting that Gretchen finished in the money, as she was the only one to pick The Proposal. Of course, that also meant she neglected a major film, which happened to be Night at the Museum 2). But she still gets to take some money home. And then comes the Bonehead Award. This year's recipient (Tina) wrapped up that prize way back in weekend #1, with her selection of Battle For Terra. Hey, at least it broke the $1 million mark ($1.6 million to be exact). And she also upped her correct # of picks from 4 last year to 6 this year. So there!

Here are this year's payouts:

1st Place - $230.00 - Steve Berg
2nd Place - $50.00 - Gretchen Hinton
Bonehead Award - $10.00 - Tina Swartz


I'd like to thank everyone for playing this year, and it was nice to see members of Chapman's group step up to the plate this year. We had our surprise hits this summer (Hangover, Proposal, G.I. Joe, G-Force and District 9, and we certainly had our bombs (Bruno, Funny People, Land of the Lost and Year One. The Hall of Boneheads has already been updated to reflect these classic choices! I hope everyone enjoyed the work that was put into this site, and let's not forget about the great posters Chapman created this summer. Hope to see everyone back next year, where we have some seriously big films being released (Iron Man 2, the ultimate DreamWorks vs. Pixar battle between Shrek 4 and Toy Story 3, and Twilight 3). I'll send out the invites next April. Take care!

8/31/09

The actuals came out today, and G.I. Joe did slightly less than originally estimated (about $300,000 less). It had been pulling in $1.1 million/day as of last Monday and Tuesday, but by Thursday and Friday had dipped to just $900,000+. It'll need $1.4 million today to pass Angels & Demons.

The final Weekly Comparisons spreadsheet has been uploaded.

8/30/09

Well this weekend made things much closer than expected, as G.I. Joe is definitely within striking distance of #10 with just one day left. Based on the weekend's estimates, Joe dropped only 34%, and is seemingly only $1 million behind Angels & Demons. The drama, however, isn't exactly over first place, as I have that wrapped up regardless of which movie finishes at #10. Instead, it's 2nd place that's at stake. If A&D holds, I would win with a Deviation Score of 16, and it looks like Gretchen (22) would edge out Laura (23) for 2nd. But if Joe passes it after Monday's earnings, I would still win with a Deviation Score of 16, and it looks like we'd have a tie for 2nd between Todd and Lafaro (28). That too is up in the air, as Todd's pick of Land of the Lost (currently a 15-point hit) could drop another spot if The Time Traveler's Wife earns $1.3 million on Monday... or if this weekend's estimates were simply too conservative. Chapman had originally been estimated to be part of the tie for 2nd place, but Funny People finished one spot lower than I projected (now a 13-point hit). But again, so far we only have estimates, and there's still August 31st to be factored in. As such, we probably won't have our final #s until late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I'll at least post the Actuals tomorrow.

8/28/09

We're finally down to our final weekend, and it seems that G.I. Joe will just barely miss the #10 spot. $131 million in 4 weekends is impressive enough, but apparently Angels & Demons was able to hold it off. Shouldn't make a difference in top placement, but 2nd place is still up for grabs... depending on that last film. 4 days left to find out!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Final Destination - 24m (24m)
2) Halloween 2 - 22m (22m)
3) Inglourious Basterds - 19.5m (73.8m)
4) District 9 - 9.8m (90.1m)
5) G.I. Joe - 7m (131.6m)
6) Julie & Julia - 6.5m (70m)
7) Taking Woodstock - 6m (6m)
8) The Time Traveler's Wife - 5.7m (47.2m)
9) Shorts - 3.3m (12m)
10) G-Force - 2.7m (111.7m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
The Final Destination = n/a (n/a by the Top Critics). Interesting.
Halloween 2 = n/a (n/a by the Top Critics). Very interesting.
Taking Woodstock = 51% (21% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
The Final Destination = 3,121
Halloween 2 = 3,000
Taking Woodstock = 1,300

8/20/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Inglourious Basterds - 25m (25m)
2) District 9 - 21m (75.5m)
3) G.I. Joe - 11.8m (119.8m)
4) The Time Traveler's Wife - 10.8m (38.5m)
5) Shorts - 8.5m (8.5m)
6) Julie & Julia - 8.3m (58.5m)
7) G-Force - 4.8m (107.8m)
8) Post Grad - 4m (4m)
9) Harry Potter 6 - 3.3m (290m)
10) The Goods - Live Hard, Sell Hard - 3.1m (11.7m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Inglourious Basterds = 88% (87% by the Top Critics). Very nice.
Shorts = 36% (50% by the Top Critics)
Post Grad = 6% (10% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Inglourious Basterds = 3,165
Shorts = 3,105
Post Grad = 1,958

8/19/09

2 weekends to go, and it's time for some serious speculation. Last year got wrapped up pretty quickly, but this year nothing is certain. In the Weekly Spreadsheets section you'll find 2 sets of projections that I created. The first keeps Angels & Demons at #10, and the second projection puts G.I. Joe at #10. It is really going to be a close finish for 10th place, and it could possibly come down to the very last day (Monday, August 31st). My projections are based on the daily earning trends of the films, plus the Boxoffice.com opening forecast for this weekend's Inglourious Basterds. Obviously we don't have the 2nd weekend results for District 9, so I'll assume only a 40% drop for the remaining weekends (that's being generous).

As I've mentioned previously, if A&D finishes 10th, we'll have a 14-way tie for 1st Place with 8 correct picks (Kurt, Justin, David L., George, Laura, Lafaro, Sponge, Butters, David G., Ed, Gretchen, Shegun, Catie and myself). And as the document shows, the I've added up the Deviation Scores for all 14 people (listed in the upper row). As it stands now, I have the best score... by a pretty large margin. According to these estimated figures, here are the predicted results:

Steve 16
Gretchen 23
Laura 24
David L. 26
Lafaro 28
Shegun 28
Kurt 30
Butters 30
Catie 32
Ed 34
Sponge 36
George 36
David G. 36
Justin 44

Gretchen actually did a really great job of placement on the movies inside the Top 10 (the best of any of us)... but that 9-point hit for Public Enemies crippled her score.

Now if G.I. Joe sneaks into the 10 spot, we'll have a 6-way tie with 8 correct picks (Chapman, Todd, Lafaro, Butters, Molly and myself). That document shows the following predicted Deviation Scores:

Steve 16
Chapman 28
Todd 28
Lafaro 28
Butters 30
Molly 30

Once again, I have the best score by a large margin. 4 movies in their right spots will do that. Chapman actually did one better by putting FIVE movies in their right spots. Back in the day, that achievement would have won him the tiebreaker... but not since we switched to Deviation Score. This pool was yours... until you put Terminator at #3 and chose Funny People. *cue sound of bomb falling and exploding* And that's right, the numbers on this document actually show a 3-way tie for 2nd place. Nice. We'll see just how well these projections hold up.

8/14/09

Chapman called me the other night asking why I hadn't posted anything yet this week, as he's waiting for my 'smugness' to reveal itself. He knows that with the $54 million opening for G.I. Joe... 3 more full weekends of box office earnings... AND the surprisingly decent word of mouth (as evidenced by Monday's gross of $6.4m, Tuesday's $5.9m and Wednesday's $4.8)... Joe is now a safe bet to finish higher than Angels & Demons' $133 million for 10th place. Boxoffice.com predicts it will be at $99 million after this weekend, with 14 days to go. Barring a complete collapse (or the sudden emergence of a surprise film), we should wind up with a 6-way tie for first place with 8 correct picks. That list would include Chapman, Todd, Lafaro, Butters, Molly and myself. And when calculating the tiebreaking Deviation Score for the 6 of us (based on final box office assumptions), I have a pretty large margin of victory.

Of course, this is only speculative, and there's no telling what could happen this weekend. I'll hold off posting the predictions until I see this weekend's #s.

This weekend: 4 new movies come out, and no one picked any of them. District 9 is getting the most pub, and has a perfect 100% rating by the Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes. But then again, it's only opening in 3,000 theaters, which will certainly hurt its earnings. I'm not assuming victory just yet.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) District 9 - 30m (30m)
2) G.I. Joe - 22.2m (99.3m)
3) The Time Traveler's Wife - 22m (22m)
4) Julie & Julia - 12.2m (43.5m)
5) The Goods - Live Hard, Sell Hard - 9m (9m)
6) Bandslam - 7m (7m)
7) G-Force - 5.9m (98.3m)
8) Harry Potter 6 - 4.5m (283.3m)
9) (500) Days of Summer - 4.2m (19.2m)
10) Funny People - 3.6m (48.7m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
District 9 = 93% (100% by the Top Critics)
The Time Traveler's Wife = 45% (36% by the Top Critics)
Bandslam = 77% (75% by the Top Critics)
The Goods - Live Hard, Sell Hard = 13% (13% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
District 9 = 3,049
The Time Traveler's Wife = 2,988
Bandslam = 2,121
The Goods - Live Hard, Sell Hard = 1,838

8/6/09

Now that the 2nd of our final 3 movies underachieved.... will the 3rd meet the same fate? Funny People (if you can call it that) earned only $22 million, essentially ending things for Chapman and Dennis. And that now leaves us with the last list-worthy film of the summer...

This weekend: G.I. Joe (opening in 4,000+ theaters). 13 people picked it, and it's going to come down to either Joe or Angels & Demons as our 10th film... with $134 million as the cutoff. If A&D holds on, we'll have a 14-way tie. If Joe makes it, we'll only have a 6-way tie. Joe has 4 full weekends to crack the list, and with the buzz picking up big-time it's certainly possible. You may have already heard that Paramount refused to screen the film for critics. So I searched online for a list of recent movies that weren't screened, and here's what I found: The Eye, Strange Wilderness, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds 3D, Grandma's Boy, BloodRayne, Ultraviolet, Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector, Silent Hill, Zoom, Pulse, The Marine, Saw III, Let's Go To Prison, and Snakes On a Plane. Ouch.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) G.I. Joe - 51m (51m)
2) Julie & Julia - 21m (21m)
3) Funny People - 10m (43m)
4) Harry Potter 6 - 9.8m (274.8m)
5) G-Force - 9.5m (85.5m)
6) A Perfect Getaway - 8m (8m)
7) The Ugly Truth - 7.2m (69.6m)
8) (500) Days of Summer - 4.3m (13m)
9) Orphan - 4.2m (35.4m)
10) Aliens In the Attic - 4m (16.3m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
G.I. Joe = 55% (n/a by the Top Critics). Wow, that's 2 weeks in a row a big movie wasn't screened to critics.
Julie & Julia = 61% (67% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
G.I. Joe = 4,007
Julie & Julia = 2,975

7/30/09

We're down to our final month, and man do we have a glut of teams at the top. Right now we've got 14 players with 8 correct picks, and then another 12 with 7 correct. G-Force didn't get it done last weekend, with only $32 million earned. Only 2 movies left... and then we're down to a potential tiebreaker.

This weekend: Next on the list... Funny People (opening in 3,008 theaters). Oooooohhhhhh... not the opening that Chapman, Dennis and John B. had hoped for, as they're the only 3 people to pick it. It's even sadder when Aliens In the Attic gets a wider release than an Adam Sandler summer movie. This film is critical for Chapman, as not only would it knock out Angels & Demons (crushing the rest of us), but he would have a huge tiebreaker edge over Dennis, based on Dennis' pick of Land of the Lost. But I just don't see it being good enough to earn over $133 million.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Funny People - 31m (31m)
2) G-Force - 18m (68m)
3) Harry Potter 6 - 17.7m (255.7m)
4) The Ugly Truth - 15.5m (57.2m)
5) Aliens In the Attic - 9m (9m)
6) Orphan - 6.8m (26.7m)
7) Ice Age 3 - 5.7m (182.3m)
8) The Hangover - 5m (255.7m)
9) The Proposal - 4.8m (148.8m)
10) Transformers 2 - 4.7m (388.2m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Funny People = 63% (47% by the Top Critics)
Aliens In the Attic = n/a (n/a by the Top Critics). That's never a good thing.

Theater count:
Aliens In the Attic = 3,106
Funny People = 3,008

7/25/09

Two words: TRON LEGACY!!!

http://wdmp-wdsmp.rd.llnw.net/wdsmp/TRON/VFXConcept/Grid_VFX_ConceptTest_High.mov

7/23/09

Wasn't able to get an update posted in time for this weekend's previews, but Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince performed just as well as we expected, raking in $158 million after 5 days. That earned it 6th place among all time 5-day openings. This summer, we've now seen 2 of the top 6 films on that list:

Top 5-Day Openings

But the bigger news is that Terminator just got knocked out of the Top 10, as The Proposal has offically taken its spot. Proposal has already passed Angels & Demons this week, and is now sitting at #9. With a $40 million difference between it and Night at the Museum, it won't climb any higher, but also shouldn't drop out of the list. Congrats to Gretchen for picking the right chick-flick. I had it on my short list, but wouldn't pull the trigger. Nice job. A&D is now sitting in 10th place at $132 million, and that'll be a tough task for our last 3 selected movies... even for a big-budgeted movie like G.I. Joe.

Next weekend: First up... G-Force (opening in 3,697 theaters). That's actually quite a bit of showings, and if kids are still interested in talking animals we could have a serious challenge for that 10th spot. 3 people picked it, including our buddy George, who has been awfully quiet this summer. His #1 movie (Terminator) may have tanked, but this is where he redeems himself! Right? We also have another chick-flick threat this weekend in The Ugly Truth (which no one picked), but with less than 3,000 theaters as an opening we shouldn't be too worried. Katherine Heigl does look great, though. I won't complain if I'm forced to see it. And then there's that movie with the ridiculously-overplayed trailer, Orphan. Thank God it's finally coming out! I won't have to see that preview again until the DVD comes out.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Harry Potter 6 - 34m (227.5m)
2) G-Force - 28m (28m)
3) The Ugly Truth - 25m (25m)
4) Orphan - 14m (14m)
5) Ice Age 3 - 11.8m (175.8m)
6) Transformers 2 - 7.9m (379.1m)
7) The Hangover - 6.3m (247m)
8) The Proposal - 5.9m (139.6m)
9) Public Enemies - 4.6m (88.6m)
10) Bruno - 3.7m (57.7m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
G-Force = 25% (25% by the Top Critics)
The Ugly Truth = 11% (7% by the Top Critics). Whoopsie!
Orphan = 52% (60% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
G-Force = 3,697
The Ugly Truth = 2,882
Orphan = 2,750

7/16/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Harry Potter 6 - 92m (174m)
2) Ice Age 3 - 16.5m (150.8m)
3) Transformers 2 - 14m (364.2m)
4) Bruno - 10.8m (52.3m)
5) The Proposal - 7.5m (127.3m)
6) The Hangover - 7.1m (234.5m)
7) Public Enemies - 7m (79.1m)
8) UP - 3m (283.4m)
9) My Sister's Keeper - 2.7m (41.5m)
10) I Love You, Beth Cooper - 2.3m (9.9m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Harry Potter 6 = 86% (88% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Harry Potter 6 = 4,275

7/14/09

Say 'no' to Bruno. The gay Austrian (or is that Australian?) pulled in only $30 million this weekend, but that didn't necessarily ruin Molly's chances, as she was one of 4 people who left Angels & Demons off their lists. I mention that, as with another $10 million earned this weekend (for only a sickening 17.5% drop... again partly due to another INCREASE in theaters), The Proposal is now looking like a lock as a Top 10 film, which would endanger A&D. Terminator will be a goner after next weekend, as Ice Age and Proposal will surpass it, in addition to the 5-day opening for Harry Potter. Give it a couple more weekends, and Proposal will pass A&D, dropping it to 10th. A&D will then have to hold off our final 3 selected films (G-Force, Funny People and G.I. Joe) to remain in the Top 10.

Proposal wasn't the only film to experience a miniscule percentage drop in earnings, as once again, The Hangover continued to amaze with only a 17.5% tumble. In fact, no movie in this weekend's Top 12 fell more than 45%. And if you look closely at the newest Weekend Comparison document, Hangover is very close to bettering the pace of Star Trek, and might actually finish 4th this summer. Seriously!

Next weekend: No one was foolish enough to skip Harry Potter (opening in 4,275+ theaters). There will also be midnight shows tonight. 6 people listed it as their #1 film, and we also have 2 people who think it'll finish as low as #6. Good luck with that.

7/12/09


 

7/10/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Bruno - 35m (35m)
2) Ice Age 3 - 28m (121m)
3) Transformers 2 - 24m (339.5m)
4) Public Enemies - 15m (67.8m)
5) The Proposal - 10m (113.3m)
6) The Hangover - 7.5m (220m)
7) I Love You, Beth Cooper - 7m (7m)
8) UP - 4.2m (273.4m)
9) My Sister's Keeper - 4m (35.7m)
10) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 - 1.4m (61.3m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Bruno = 71% (55% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Bruno = 2,755. That's much fewer than I expected.

7/09/09

David Logan's update:

New District 9 full length Trailer.

A lot of people are predicting Neill Blomkamp's District 9 to be a sleeper hit this summer, and now there is a full-length trailer.

Synopsis: Thirty years ago, aliens made first contact with Earth. Humans waited for the hostile attack, or the giant advances in technology. Neither came. Instead, the aliens were refugees, the last survivors of their home world. The creatures were set up in a makeshift home in Johannesburg, South Africa's District 9 as the world's nations argued over what to do with them.

The film was shot documentary-style, and as you can see from the trailer, robots also seem to factor into the plot somehow. Anyway, the humans fear the aliens, so they marginalize them from society and control their movements, and the aliens' frustrations eventually makes them violent.



7/7/09

I think we can now cross Public Enemies off the list of potential Top 10 movies, as it pulled in only $40 million during its 5-day Fourth of July Weekend run. And David has since dropped off the face of the Earth. Maybe it was Transformers that kept people away, but that film actually suffered its own 61% box office drop. Still, $42 million in a 2nd weekend is $42 million. And it's not like Ice Age 3 had much to do with it either, as it finished at only $66 million after 5 days... also a slight letdown.

I guess people just weren't interested in going to the theater this holiday weekend, as nearly all of the movies suffered 50-60% drops. One of the exceptions, of course, was Hangover, which fell only 33%, earning another $11.2 million to pass the $200 million mark (currently at $205 mil). And just as I warned the week it came out, there's a 2nd film that might be a list-buster this year... The Proposal. It actually INCREASED its number of theaters in weekend #3, pulling in nearly $13 million for only a 30% drop... and now at $94 million. We already know that Harry Potter will be a lock, in addition to Transformers, Up, Star Trek, Hangover, Wolverine and Night at the Muserum. That's 7 films, and with Ice Age's opening, we can expect it to be the 8th. We also know that Angels & Demons will finish higher than Terminator. In my opinion, knowing that Hangover is the movie that will knock out Terminator, that potentially makes Proposal the movie to knock out A&D. And that's no good for most of us. Except for Gretchen. It'd be very good for her. And we still have 4 major films to be released!

Next weekend: What's uppppppp?... I'm Bruno!!! Geez, 81% of people on Rotten Tomatoes already like it. And with a running time of only 80 minutes... that's a lot of shows to squeeze in over the weekend. Molly is evidently the only believer, and a potential $45 million opening (according to Boxoffice.com) will make it another movie sitting right on the edge. Point of reference: Even with the 'R' rating, Borat hauled in $128 million in 2006.

7/3/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Ice Age 3 - 53.5m (79.5m)
2) Transformers 2 - 50m (300m)
3) Public Enemies - 33m (48m)
4) The Hangover - 12m (205.2m)
5) The Proposal - 11.8m (92.8m)
6) Up - 8.3m (267.5m)
7) My Sister's Keeper - 8m (28.7m)
8) Year One - 3m (39.3m)
9) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 - 2.8m (59.1m)
10) Star Trek - 2.3m (250.5m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Ice Age 3 = 46% (37% by the Top Critics)
Public Enemies = 63% (59% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Ice Age 3 = 4,032
Public Enemies = 3,319

7/02/09

David Logan's update:


 

Universal has won a four-studio bidding war to pick up the film rights to the classic Atari video game Asteroids. Matthew Lopez will write the script for the feature adaptation, which will be produced by Lorenzo di Bonaventura. [Lopez recently worked Bedtime Stories and wrote the latest draft of The Sorcerer's Apprentice.]

In Asteroids, initially released as an arcade game in 1979, a player controlled a triangular space ship in an asteroid field. The object was to shoot and destroy the hulking masses of rock and the occasional flying saucer while avoiding smashing into both.

A BIDDING WAR! For a movie based on three dots that shoot one dot at other small clusters of dots. If you can think of anything stupider than this, someone in Hollywood will pay you a lot of money.

GREAT NEWS, EVERYONE, TOM CRUISE JUST SIGNED ON TO PLAY BLINKING LIGHT NUMBER FOUR!

6/29/09

So has everyone been paying attention to the success of Transformers 2? We're talking '#1 movie of the summer' numbers. We're talking Dark Knight numbers (that's just mind-boggling, being only one year later). The actuals are in, and Transformers hauled in $200 million IN FIVE DAYS! That's #2 all-time... right behind Dark Knight:
Top 5-Day Performances

Looking at that link, it actually had a higher Theater Average than Dark Knight. Some other milestones:

- It opened as a Top 100 movie of all time, debuting at #92:
All-Time Box Office

- It had the 2nd biggest Opening Day (again only to Dark Knight):
Top Opening Days

- It had the biggest June opening ever...
Top June Openings

- ...which was good for the 7th biggest Opening Weekend of All-Time:
Top Opening Weekends

It's already #3 this summer, and should be #1 by Friday. As for everything else, Up finally passed Star Trek to be the (short-lived) #1 movie this summer, hitting $250 million. Hangover leapfrogged both Night at the Museum and Wolverine to #4 on the list, and might hit $200 million by Friday. Land of the Lost finally fell out of the Top 10, as did Taking of Pelham. And as mentioned earlier, Sean took a chance on the chick-flick My Sister's Keeper, but it only managed to scrounge up $12 million. Whoops.

Next weekend: This upcoming weekend will be HUGE in breaking up the pack. We already know that with the success of Hangover, something big is going to be left out. And the general feeling is that it's going to come down to those who picked Public Enemies and those who picked G.I. Joe. Well, opening this weekend is Enemies, and 17 people took it. It's already doing well with critics (2 of 3 like it on Rotten Tomatoes), and it should really rake in the cash with a Wednesday opening and this being Fourth of July weekend. But then again, it's rated R, and that R-rating hasn't been too kind to Michael Mann-directed films lately... even ones with big stars (2006's Miami Vice - $63 mil... 2005's Colleteral - $101 mil). There's also this other little film coming out: Ice Age 3 (also opening on Wednesday). 5 people seem to have had enough with animated films, and left it off their lists. So we have the family film, the smart film, and the stupid action film this weekend. I think I know which two are going to come out on top. Those of you with Enemies better hope there's enough cash to go around.

But I was just thinking of something... We're assuming either Public Enemies or G.I. Joe will make the list. Why is that? What if NEITHER makes the cut? What if neither one of them reaches $120 million? (certainly possible) That'll likely leave Angels & Demons at #9 and Terminator at #10 (barely)... momentarily saving us all (well, all of us except Dennis)... and then we'll have a serious mess of a tiebreaker! Exciting!!!

6/27/09

The hits keep on coming! I understand Mario's inclusion (based on the tagline). I guess Kurt deserves this for putting it at #6.


 

6/25/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Transformers 2 - 108m (193m)
2) The Proposal - 20.5m (71.5m)
3) The Hangover - 16m (182m)
4) Up - 14.7m (252m)
5) My Sister's Keeper - 13.5m (13.5m)
6) Year One - 7.7m (34.3m)
7) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 - 5.7m (53.8m)
8) Night at the Museum 2 - 4.5m (164.5)
9) Star Trek - 3.5m (246m)
10) Land of the Lost - 2m (47.8m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Transformers 2 = 22% (20% by the Top Critics). Does it really matter?
My Sister's Keeper = 38% (40% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Transformers 2 = 4,234
My Sister's Keeper = 2,606

6/23/09

It may have finally knocked The Hangover out of the top spot, but $34 million likely isn't going to get it done for The Proposal. At least it outperformed Year One, which limped along to $20 million. That'll pretty much wipe out both Justin and Dennis, as they'll get crushed in any tiebreaker. As for Gretchen, we shouldn't count her out until we seen the 2nd weekend results for Proposal. Chapman, however, obviously thinks you're done.

It was another great weekend for most of our films, as the dropoffs were pretty minimal. Leading the way, of course, was The Hangover, with an amazing 18.4% drop. It's already at $152.8 million after 3 weekends! And no one picked it! Even crazier is that it'll be the #3 movie after next weekend. That's just sick. Night at the Museum also rocked in its 5th weekend, with only a 18.8% drop. Up fell just 23.6%, and it should be our #1 film after next weekend. Meanwhile, both Angels & Demons and Terminator dropped 31.4%, keeping their Top 10 chances alive.

Next weekend: Well it started tonight at midnight, as Transformers 2 was finally unleashed upon us. Everyone picked it, and 16 of us had it as our #1 film. 2 players (surprisingly including Kurt) have it as low as #6. Interesting. Here are some quick numbers: It's opening in 4,000+ theaters, and Boxoffice.com is projecting it to earn $42 million ON OPENING DAY ($165 million by Sunday night). However, it's getting killed on Rotten Tomatoes, with a rating of 26% (24% by Top Critics). Even the first movie had a 57%/68% rating. They loved the first one... but hate the second. We also have My Sister's Keeper opening Friday, as Sean is going for the chick-flick-pick in a weekend of testosterone. But 2 chick-flicks at the same time? There's simply no room for both! Catfight!!!

6/23/09

Mike wants this out there now, but I think it's too early. Whatever... here it is.


 

6/21/09

Mike's newest victims: Justin and Dennis.... B.C.-style! Mike also has a poster made up for Gretchen's pick of The Proposal, but after being the #1 film this weekend, I recommend waiting another weekend to see if it has any serious 'staying power'. Don't want to call it a bust just yet.


 

6/18/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Proposal - 27m (27m)
2) The Hangover - 22m (148.2m)
3) Up - 21m (224m)
4) Year One - 19m (19m)
5) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 - 11.5m (44m)
6) Night at the Museum 2 - 6m (154.7)
7) Land of the Lost - 4.5m (44.2m)
8) Star Trek - 3.5m (238.2m)
9) Terminator Salvation - 2.8m (119.2m)
10) Imagine That - 2.7m (10.9m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
The Proposal = 42% (41% by the Top Critics)
Year One = 18% (25% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
The Proposal = 3,056
Year One = 3,022

6/16/09

So both Johns and Chiara left Night at the Museum off their list for this? Obviously affected by an incredible 2nd weekend of The Hangover (only a 27% drop), The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 rode off with only a $23 million opening (after the actuals were released). I guess no one wanted to see a typical hostage-thriller in a summer of great sci-fi and comedy. Biddle's summer was already shot by also leaving Up off his list, but as long as Hangover knocks SOMETHING off everyone's list, most people still have a good chance. We'll probably have something like 15 people get 9 right, and it'll come down to the ultimate tiebreaker. Placement is important!

The latest Weekend Comparison was uploaded, and after 4 weekends, Terminator has finally slipped behind the pace of Angels & Demons. It was actually a good weekend for all films, as their dropoffs were all very minimal. Terminator's dropoff was a nice 42%. But then again, A&D only dropped 37.2%. Oh, and it's also still chugging along at $123 mil and counting (after another $4 mil weekend). It'll be fine.

Next weekend: Justin's big risk! Year One opens in 2,900+ theaters, and both he and Dennis took it. That's a pretty small release for a Top-10-worthy film. But 2 of 2 people like it on Rotten Tomatoes... so that's a good start. There's also Gretchen's chick-flick pick of The Proposal (opening in 2,950+ theaters). This could save her summer, as she also left Museum off her list. Unfortunately for her, all money made from last weekend's sneak preview applied to Up, as it was a free double-feature. Awwwwwwwwww.

6/15/09

The third in the series of Chapman's movie posters. Always impressive!


 

6/12/09

David Logan's update:

Here are some movies made at Paramount that screened better than G.I. Joe.

Pootie Tang - 27% Rotten Tomato Rating
There are bad movies, there are disappointing movies, and then there's Pootie Tang, a movie so incompetent, it almost defies description.

This astonishingly unfunny Paramount comedy is burdened with writing, direction and acting that would cause Ed Wood to wince.


 

Staying Alive - 0% Rotten Tomato Rating
The words 'directed by Sylvester Stallone' say it all.

So horrific are the musical sequences in this movie that you will swear you were having nightmares directed by Satan himself.


 

The Love Guru - 14% Rotten Tomato Rating
At one point Kingsleys character makes his pupils duel with mops soaked in his own urine. If you think that is funny, be my guest.

Myers has his head in the toilet more than a Florida State University freshman co-ed during homecoming weekend.


 

Dance Flick - 27% Rotten Tomato Rating
Limps along like it has a bunion the size of a cantaloupe.

Yes, it's rated PG-13, except it's also inappropriate for anyone over 13.


 

6/12/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Hangover - 30m (101m)
2) Up - 29m (185.5m)
3) The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 - 27m (27m)
4) Imagine That - 13m (13m)
5) Night at the Museum 2 - 9.5m (143.2)
6) Land of the Lost - 9m (34.6m)
7) Star Trek - 5.6m (231.9m)
8) Terminator Salvation - 4.4m (113.4m)
9) Angels & Demons - 3.8m (122.9m)
10) Drag Me To Hell - 3.5m (34.7m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 = 48% (48% by the Top Critics)
Imagine That = 43% (60% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 = 3,074
Imagine That = 3,008

New poll question!

6/11/09

As David reported, all is not well in G.I. Joe-land. Here's a follow-up article with more details on the situation. Awesome!

"Latino Review posted a grim assessment of the state of affairs on Paramount Pictures 'G.I.Joe: The Rise of Cobra'. Their article is based primarily on an anonymous post on producer Don Murphy's message board, which immediately raises red flags as to its credibility. However, Latino Review claims that their own sources are telling them similar things.

Allegedly: Director Stephen Sommers was removed from post production on the film by Paramount executive Brad Weston, due to a disastrous test screening of the film. According to the message board post, the film attained the lowest score "in the history of Paramount."

Stuart Baird was supposedly brought in to try to mold the film into some kind of usable shape.

The scooper claims that Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner "is frantic that this will destroy the brand" and is trying to wash his hands of the project.

And supposedly Sommers has been allowed back into the editing room just to keep up appearances that all is well in Joe-land.

Of course, the message board post is not substantiated by any credible on-record sources, so it could just be vindictive B.S. However, El Guapo at LR writes, "I've heard through various sources that this story is true," so there's a corroboration of sorts."

6/11/09

David Logan's update:

G.I. Joe Still Sucks Part 2

 
There's a rumor floating around the internet that Stephen Sommers was fired mid-way through shooting G.I. Joe (anyone who saw Van Helsing wouldn't have hired him in the first place). Here's the original rumor:

After a test screening wherein the film tested the lowest score ever from an audience in the history of Paramount, the executive who pushed for the movie, Brad Weston, had Stephen Sommers, the super hack director fired. Removed. Locked out of the editing room.

Stuart Baird, a renowned "fixer" editor was brought it to try to see if it could be made releasable. Meanwhile producer Lorenzo Di Bonaventura whose turkey Imagine That explodes this weekend as the new bomb in theatres (also championed by Weston) was told his services were no longer needed on the film either.

Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner, who turned down other offers from the property to go with the script that was rushed in 8 weeks by Stuart Beattie because of the writer's strike is frantic that this will destroy the brand and is distancing himself from the pending catastrophe.

NONE of this needed to happen, except someone who did not know the mythology, Lorenzo was in charge of the film and never contradicted Sommers on anything. Lorenzo, was Chairman of Warners and had G.I. Joe under option there (not as a producer) for SEVEN years and he refused to greenlight the film, stating that because he grew up in Italy he had no knowledge of it. If you google enough, at one point you will see he wanted the film to be about an action hero named MANN (Action Man, get it) and he clearly had no clue what the G.I. Joe world really was.

LatinoReview just spoke with Di Bonaventura, who denies the story, which isn't surprising considering the story kind of makes him look bad, and as anyone will tell you, Hollywood peoples' number one motivator is to not look bad. Other people are refuting the "tested low" part of the story, but when a movie tracking 13% on Rotten Tomatoes can supposedly test well, it just goes to show that maybe an audience full of unemployed extras isn't the greatest indicator of anything. But the part that smells of BS to me is part where the CEO of Hasbro is supposedly embarrassed. This is the same guy producing a Candyland movie.

6/9/09

The second in the series of Chapman's movie posters. Very well done!


 
That would be Todd, Jaime and Chiara fighting for survival!

6/9/09

Surprise, surprise. We may have just run into the movie that could ruin any 10-for-10 hopes this summer. The Hangover bust onto the scene as the #1 movie this weekend (after the actual figures were released) with $45 million. And NO ONE picked it! I know of one player who said they were sooooo close to pulling the trigger... but that doesn't cut it. The buzz is insane with this film, and I can't wait to see the 2nd weekend percentage dropoff to validate its legitimacy. Anything smaller than 40% and it should be a lock for Top 10. Its adjusted opening was even higher than Wedding Crashers, and we all remember how that film performed ($189 million... to win the pool for Larry).

Meanwhile, Land of the Lost completely flopped with an opening of $18.8 million. Yeah, that's the end of that film... and likely the hopes of the 7 who picked it, as it'll kill their chances in a tiebreaker. And Todd's been awfully quiet since Sunday (except for saying G.I. Joe looks good). Man, is he way off this summer. He badly needs Hangover to knock out Angels & Demons to screw up everyone else's chances, but it's simply not gonna happen. As I've said, it's not A&D that will get edged out. Not when it keeps dropping less than 50% each weekend (only -42.3%). It's already up to $116 million and keeps on chugging along. At the very least it'll place higher than Terminator, which is still $10.6 million behind, making approximately the same amount each weekend, and also dropping at a higher percentage (-49.8%). And oh, by the way, another action movie comes out next weekend.

It was actually a very good weekend all around, as Up only dropped 35.2% (it still won't be #1, though), Star Trek only dropped 34.1%, and Museum only dropped 39.9%. But of course, that doesn't help the people who ignored those films.

Next weekend: A likely quiet one, as only 3 people picked The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 (opening in 3,000+ theaters). Not a very wide release, but it's critical for all 3 who picked it, as they need it to offset their omission of Museum. Oops. There's also Eddie Murphy’s new movie, Imagine That (opening in 2,800+ theaters). CHICK FLICK ALERT!!! Only Gretchen picked it, but there's been a bit of rumbling about Sandra Bullock's new movie, The Proposal, and it happens to have a sneak preview in 800 theaters this Saturday. Need to keep an eye on that.

6/4/09

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Up - 38m (130.5m)
2) The Hangover - 32m (32m)
3) Land of the Lost - 28m (28m)
4) Night at the Museum 2 - 13m (125.5m)
5) Terminator Salvation - 7.4m (104.7m)
6) Star Trek - 7.2m (221.6m)
7) Drag Me To Hell - 7.1m (28.3m)
8) Angels & Demons - 6.5m (116.3m)
9) My Life In Ruins - 3m (3m)
10) Dance Flick - 2.2m (22.8m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
The Hangover = 83% (100% by the Top Critics). 100%! Awesome!
Land of the Lost = 20% (10% by the Top Critics). 10%. Not awesome.

Theater count:
The Hangover = 3,269
Land of the Lost = 3,521

New poll question!

6/2/09

As expected, Up blistered all other films this weekend with $68.1 million earned, the 3rd best opening for a Pixar film ever behind The Incredibles ($70.5 mil) and Finding Nemo ($70.3 mil). My thinking is that Pixar finally got it right by releasing their film BEFORE any other studio could open theirs (Ice Age 3 doesn't open until July 1st). John B. and Tina didn't get to participate in the Up fun, however. Too bad. I'm gonna see it Wednesday night.

Now that we're a month into the Pool, I've posted the first Weekly Comparisons document, which can be found on the Weekly Spreadsheet page. It'll be updated weekly (umm, like its name), and it is a good indicator of how the films compare with each other over equal periods of time. I've already posted on the tagboard that I believe Angels and Demons and Terminator will be fighting for position all summer (possibly for 10th place), and I say it will be Terminator that will lose out. It's only been 2 weekends, but after a 5-day opening of only $65 million (that's really sad considering it had both a Thursday and Memorial Day to beef up the numbers), it couldn't afford a drop greater than 50% in Weekend #2. Well, 61% is a greater amount, and it's currently sitting at only $90 mil. Yes, A&D was at $87.5 mil after 2 weekends, but it has also only dropped 40% and 47% in its 2nd and 3rd weekends. The people have spoken! Let's see Terminator do that well.

One item of note: Battle For Terra finally dropped out of the Top 10. Sorry, Tina... the dream is over.

Next weekend: Our first wildcard of the summer... Land of the Lost (opening in 3,300+ theaters). 7 people picked it, and this movie could go either way. Will Ferrell films haven't made much noise recently, but it really looks fun (despite me not picking it). I mean, I still laugh at the latest trailers when I see them. But then again, it's currently 0-for-4 on Rotten Tomatoes, and there's also this awesome little film called The Hangover (opening in 3,200+ theaters) that is catching lots of pub (yet no one picked). In fact, it's 15-for-15 on Rotten Tomatoes. Wow! Forget it, Lost is screwed!

6/01/09

David Logan's update:

G.I. Joe Still Sucks
More Somersaults ... Yeah!

If you can get MTV's crappy player to work, this is the new clip from Stephen Sommers' G.I. Joe that debuted at the MTV movie awards. I am impressed with how much he was able to modernize the story. I counted almost seven pairs of sunglasses! Sometimes they will be wearing them and then they take them off and then a second later the are wearing them again! Must be special effects!

I an now convinced that this is going to be like Fantastic 4. Everything worth seeing is in the trailer.

This movie is going to be bad ... I don't mean bad like it may be kinda good because I grew up with G.I. Joe and it has to be awesome ... no this is going to suck in every way imaginable.

Can anyone honestly say that they are looking forward to seeing this movie? And on a side note, what is up with the swords ... just pull out a Glock already and end it. Am I going to have to sit through drawn out sword fighting too?

Movie Trailers - Movies Blog


5/29/09

David Logan's update:

Don Cheadle is set to replace Terrence Howard in the upcoming release of Iron Man 2.

I am stoked about this because Don Cheadle is awesome and Terrence Howard is stupid. How does Don Cheadle not have like six oscars by now. He is the best actor in Hollywood!

The TK421 ... It speaks for itself.

Go on and move with it if you need to, it helps me.

5/28/09

Box Office Report's predictions for this weekend:
1) Up - 60m (60m)
2) Night at the Museum 2 - 28m (108m)
3) Drag Me To Hell - 20m (20m)
4) Terminator Salvation - 18m (93.3m)
5) Star Trek - 14.6m (211.4m)
6) Angels & Demons - 10.7m (84.5m)
7) Dance Flick - 5.3m (19.8m)
8) Wolverine - 4.3m (171.3m)
9) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - 2.7m (50.8m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Up = 98% (96% by the Top Critics).
Drag Me To Hell = 95% (88% by the Top Critics). From Newsday: "A near-brilliant comedy disguised as a quickie horror flick, Sam Raimi's Drag Me to Hell is the year's most frightfully hilarious movie so far." Very interesting. I might crap my pants watching it, but now I'm intrigued. "Thanks 'Oops, I Crapped My Pants'!"

Theater count:
Up = 3,766
Drag Me To Hell = 2,508

5/27/09

David Logan's update:

I bet you didn't think it was possible to fit the 100 greatest movie lines into 200 hundred seconds. This is really great!



5/26/09

If you haven't noticed, the tagboard is back (for now). I'd like to thank George for his help, and we'll see how long we can keep the spammers away.

I've heard both good and bad reviews for Terminator Salvation and Night at the Museum 2, and while one movie exceeded expectations, the other fell short. Estimated at $83 million, Terminator only wound up pulling in $67 million, even with the 4-day weekend. Ouch. Maybe it's just not the same without Arnold. Of course, there was also quite a bit of competition. Ben Stiller fans evidently chose Museum instead, as it surpassed its $61 million prediction with a total of $70 mil. And then there was Star Trek, which raked in another $29 million in its 3rd weekend (only a 31% drop). Even Angels & Demons joined the Memorial weekend fun with $27 million (40% drop). That's certainly good news for those of us who selected it, as we couldn't afford anything greater than 50% in weekend #2.

With these numbers, however, I do have a slight concern about Terminator, as it could go the way of Fantastic Four 2 (a film that opened with $58 million... only to finish 11th). I know Dennis is hoping it tanks! As for the 9 of you who ignored Museum, you missed out on the 9th biggest Memorial Weekend movie of all-time:

Memorial Day Weekends

And besides, you should know better than to doubt Stiller. His movies have actually been wildly successful since Summer '04. Check it out:

Ben Stiller Movies

Next weekend: I'm surprised to see that even after 9 box office smashes, there are still two people who aren't believers in Pixar films. Up is next on the list (opening in 3,700+ theaters), and let's face it, it's already a lock. Two of you even have it as your #1 film. Of course, Tina couldn't find room for it on her list... not with Battle For Terra taking up a spot :)

5/23/09

Box Office Report's predictions for this weekend:
1) Terminator Salvation - 66m (83m)
2) Night at the Museum 2 - 61m (61m)
3) Star Trek - 29m (189.5m)
4) Angels & Demons - 25.5m (84.5m)
5) Dance Flick - 14m (14m)
6) Wolverine - 8m (163m)
7) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - 5.7m (47.9m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Terminator Salvation = 35% (34% by the Top Critics).
Night at the Museum 2 = 43% (33% by the Top Critics).

Theater count:
Terminator Salvation = 3,530
Night at the Museum 2 = 4,096

New poll question!

5/22/09

David Logan's update:

This is a mash up video of Transformers and Terminator ... hence The Transforminators

"They used to just shoot at us. But now they turn into sweet cars. Theyre taking human prisoners. Replicating human tissue. And worst of all: eating all of our sand."



5/21/09

This was brought to my attention by a former movie pool participant... which sadly only went straight to DVD this week. I've got 5 words for you: Mega Shark vs. Giant Octopus!



Now THAT would have made for a nice Bonehead Award!

5/21/09

Whoops... just a lil late posting last weekend's update... lol. The standings have already been updated to reflect Angels & Demons, and what originally looked like a mistake for the 4 players who left it off the list, now looks pretty smart. In no way did A&D bomb out, but it 'only' pulled in $46 million, which with so much competition this year might not be enough of a start. Looking at last year's Weekly Comparison document, no Top 10 movie earned less than $51 million in its opening weekend:

The Dark Knight - $158m
Iron Man - $98m
Indiana Jones 4 - $100m
Hancock - $62m
WALL-E - $63m
Kung Fu Panda - $60m
Sex and the City - $57m
Narnia 2 - $55m
Incredible Hulk - $55m
Wanted - $51m

D'oh! A&D is right on the cusp, and for those of us that picked it, thankfully has the entire summer to give us hope. But as always, the most critical # will be the 2nd weekend performance. And to blame for this result? I'll say Star Trek (justifiably so), as it amazingly hauled in $43 million in its 2nd weekend (only a 43% drop). It actually INCREASED the # of theaters it played in! That film is responsible for the underachievement of BOTH Wolverine and A&D. But it was sooooooooo good! Giving a little bit of hope to us A&D selectors: the fact that Mamma Mia! and Get Smart finished 11th and 12th last year with opening weekends of $27m and $38m, respectively.

Next weekend: Well, it starts today with the release of Terminator Salvation (opening in 3,480 theaters). That's actually a surprisingly small # of theaters for a major movie. Only one person left it off the list, and it was a complete oversight (good job, dad). It's currently sitting at 35% on Rotten Tomatoes. And starting tomorrow is Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (opening in 4,000 theaters), with a 48% rating on RT. I just can't laugh at that preview, so I have no idea how well it'll do.

5/16/09

David Logan's update:

Cool new Star Trek / Star Wars Video
For those of you that have not seen it, here is a cool video making the rounds.

Military force was authorized yesterday after the alleged time travelers and their craft ignored an ultimatum to stop whale poaching.

5/15/09

Box Office Report's predictions for this weekend:
1) Angels and Demons - 55m (55m)
2) Star Trek - 43m (147.5m)
3) X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 11.5m (147.8m)
4) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - 6.8m (40m)
9) Next Day Air - 2.1m (7.5m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Angels & Demons = 38% (35% by the Top Critics). Keeps dropping like a rock.

Theater count:
Angels & Demons = 3,527

5/11/09

Been a bit busy lately, so only getting to the update right now. Had jury duty today for the first time... and actually got selected. Same drill tomorrow... early AM. And that's after a tiring weekend at Universal in Orlando. Ughh.

So I heard that some Star Trek thing-y came out this weekend, right? Yeahhh, to the tune of $75 million!! According to Box Office Mojo, it was the biggest-grossing weekend ever in IMAX history, as Trek pulled in $8.5 million at 138 IMAX venues (surpassing The Dark Knight's previous record of $6.3 million). And I'm betting David saw half of those screenings. We all picked it, so no one got left in the cold. I'll be seeing it Wednesday night.

And how about that 69% drop for Wolverine in weekend #2? That percentage tied for #58 on the list of Biggest 2nd Weekend Drops All-Time. The closest we've seen to that was Hulk in 2003 (#54 on the list). Ouch, babe.

Biggest 2nd Weekend Drops

A couple of you picked it to be the #1 film this summer... but while $129 million is a great number after two weekends, it definitely won't be the top film.

Next weekend: Our first big film that wasn't a unanimous pick... Angels and Demons (opening in 3,400+ theaters). The Da Vinci Code pulled in $217 million in 2006, and most of us are hoping for at least 2/3 of that amount. Doesn't have to match it... just come close. It's sitting at a 67% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes, so it shouldn't be a bomb by any means. Only 4 of us left it off the list, including both Mike and Todd. You guys talk that one over toegther?

5/8/09

David Logan's update:

Mike Tyson is required viewing

There's a new red-band trailer out for The Hangover, from Old School director Todd Phillips, starring Zach Galifianakis, Ed Helms, and Brad Cooper.

The plot is that they wake up in Vegas after a bachelor party and one of their friends is missing. And that friend is played by Justin Bartha. Which is good, because going most of the movie without Zach G. or Ed Helms would've been a shame. Also, I don't see why a person has to get married in order to have a bachelor party.

The best part is watching Grammy nominated .... no that's not right, Oscar nominated Mike Tyson. I mean it is a movie. Anyway Mike Tyson singing his version of In the Air Tonight by Phil Collins. Who knew?



James Toback is a writer/director who recently made the documentary Tyson, which will be premiering at Sundance, about his friend Mike Tyson. It took about 20 seconds of this clip to convince me to see the movie.

Says Tyson:

"Tho you know I come from a real poverty thtwucken area, so when I came to live with Cus (Cus D'Amato, Tyson's first trainer), they live in a 14-room Victorian mansion. And when I first come there, I said, 'Wow, I could really rob these white muf-ckas.'"

Funny, it was that exact revelation that launched the career of Larry the Cable Guy.

Movie Trailers - Movies Blog

5/8/09

David Logan's update:

DARE I SAY IT, THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS KINDA COOL

Neill Blomkamp is a filmmaker whose short films gained him a fan in Peter Jackson, who hired Blomkamp to direct the now-scrapped movie adaptation of Halo. This is a Blomkamp joint called District 9, and it's a faux-documentary about an alien invasion. But, like, as a parable for race-relations and crap.

The film is done documentary style and tells the story of an alien race that comes to Earth for an unknown reason. They attempt to settle in South Africa but encounter fear, anger, and racism (speciesism?) from the locals. Like the short it's based on, District 9 plays as a not-so-subtle analogy for past and present human race relations and segregation.

Anyway, the effects look pretty cool, and judging by the alien-with-disguised identity interview at the 1:09 mark, it also has a sense of humor.

5/7/09

If you're not on our Facebook site, this is what you're missing...


 
Direct quote from Tina: "Battle for Terra is off to a slow start but will place....I don't want the Bonehead award :("

5/7/09

Box Office Report's predictions for this weekend:
1) Star Trek - 70m (70m)
2) X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 31m (134m)
3) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - 9.3m (29m)
7) Next Day Air - 3.5m (3.5m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Star Trek = 94% (90% by the Top Critics).
Next day Air = 20% (17% by the Top Critics).

Theater count:
Star Trek = 3,849
Next Day Air = 1,138

5/6/09

Still no functional tagboard, so Justin just created a Facebook group for 'Summer Movie Pool' for us to talk crap. There's already 7 of us in the group, and invites went out to the rest of you who are are currently my 'friends'. If you have a Facebook profile and want to be added to the group, send me an e-mail at sberg23@yahoo.com with the address you used for Facebook, and I'll send the invite.

5/4/09

What a start to the summer! $87 million for Wolverine! Thats pretty awesome, but then when you analyze it with other May release opening weekends, it's surprisingly only ELEVENTH on the list. Crazy. The top 16 movies on that list all grossed over $200 million, and many of them are in the $300 million range, so it's a Top 5 film easily:

May Opening Weekends

Its $35 million on Friday was also good for 16th on the list of Top Single Day Grosses:

Top Opening Days

But while we all nailed Wolverine, Tina wasn't so lucky for taking a chance on Battle For Terra, as it made only $1.1 million. Sorry, Tina. But as I posted a couple days ago, you'll probably be getting that $10 right back, courtesy of the Bonehead Award. And the best part? You'll be immortalized in our Hall of Boneheads. Congrats!

Next weekend: Heyyyyy, look at that. Once again, everyone took the big event movie of the week: Star Trek (opening in 3,500+ theaters). It's also sitting on a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes after 18 reviews. For the record, I grew up completely disliking Star Trek. I'm a Star Wars guy, and found Trek dull and talky and... well, simply dull. But this movie? Wowwwwwwww! Great trailers... and Harold is in it! The very same guy who brought the term MILF to the big screen. Awesome! It should really rock.

5/3/09

David Logan's update:

Picks are in and G.I. Joe Still Sucks

Looks like all the picks are in and there is nothing really that unexpected. I was on the fence about G.I. Joe but I just couldn't pick it. It just feels like Speed Racer to me. I always ask myself... "Am I going to see it?". I probably won't see G.I. Joe and I probably will see Public Enemies. Done.

What I really remember from the G.I. Joe trailer is seeing guys doing backflips and somersaults in the middle of the street. Uh... negative. Not going to go see that movie.

I prefer this G.I. Joe Public Service Announcement:



Found this cool video where this guy clips 100 movies together. Maybe it's just me but it seems like each clip leads into the next like they are related.

Really awesome. Check it out!

5/2/09

Box Office Report's predictions for this weekend:
1) X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 88m (88m)
2) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past - 17m (17m)
No Battle For Terra on the list.

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
X-Men Origins: Wolverine = 38% (15% by the Top Critics). Wow, seriously?
Ghosts of Girlfriends Past = 32% (26% by the Top Critics).
Battle For Terra = 51% (58% by the Top Critics).

Theater count:
X-Men Origins: Wolverine = 4,099
Ghosts of Girlfriends Past = 3,175
Battle For Terra = 1,162

5/2/09

Evidently the economy has now affected the Summer Movie Pool, as we dropped from 41 entries to only 30 this year. We lost 12 players, but did gain a new one. Oh well... now we have a more intimate group of players (also making the grid a bit easier to read).

This was an interesting year of selections. Typically, there have been maybe 6 or 7 solid 'lock' picks, and then everyone went their separate ways to fill in their remaining picks. This summer, Hollywood threw us about 14 legitimate big-time movies, forcing us to pick from that group... thus minimizing the wild selections. That's really a shame, as the Bonehead Award is one of the best aspects of this pool. And glancing at our bracket, I think we can already see our winner of that prize. Only 20 different movies were selected this year, tying the fewest ever for 10+ people, but that year only had 26 people playing. Now moreso than ever, this summer will definitely come down to a tiebreaker.

Some quick observations: Everyone jumped on the first blockbuster of the summer (Wolverine), as well as Star Trek, Transformers and Harry Potter... however, 1 person doesn't believe in Terminator, and another isn't high on Up... my personal toughest choice of the summer seems to be a trend this year, as nearly half of the pool took Public Enemies, and the other half took G.I. Joe (the release of those movies will be a HUGE determining factor this year)... we again have a small group who still believe in Will Ferrell... but not much love for Jack Black... or John Travolta... or Adam Sandler (again!)... or even CGI gerbils for that matter... and finally we have 4 movies with singular picks, 2 of which being chick-flicks... The Proposal could be a huge sleeper, though, as I've seen projections as high as $90+ million (I don't see another mid-summer comedy chick-flick out there, and this could be the biggie we get every year)... of course, I've also seen projections as high as $100+ million for Bruno, so who knows.

Our Bonehead competition this year doesn't look like much of a competition, as Tina's Battle for Terra is opening in only 1,100+ theaters this weekend, and projected to make only about $1 million. Congrats. This thing is over as soon as it started. Maybe last year's 4-for-10 effort wasn't a fluke. Hopefully Sean's My Sister's Keeper can keep things interesting.

Something to also keep an eye on this year is that with so many huge movies this summer, we could be looking at the #10/#11 cutoff at possibly $140 million. The cutoff amounts (for the most part) have naturally increased over the years:

2008 - $134 million
2007 - $133 million
2006 - $121 million
2005 - $82 million
2004 - $113 million
2003 - $107 million
2002 - $123 million
2001 - $109 million
2000 - unknown
1999 - $111 million
1998 - $94 million

Of course, we're also dealing with a bad economy, so maybe that will put a dent in all movie earnings. And then there's the Swine Flu (excuse me, the H1N1 Virus) epidemic. Who knows if that will have an impact on theater attendance.

Since we're down to 30 entries, we're obviously decreasing our payouts. We're also going eliminate the 3rd Place prize this year. So with a pot of $290.00 ($10.00 goes to the site fee), we'll pay out:

1st Place - $230.00
2nd Place - $50.00
Bonehead Award - $10.00


I need everyone to look at their movies on both the 'Picks' and 'Current Standings' pages to verify for accuracy. Wolverine is projected for an $88 million opening, so we're all off to a great start. Hope you all enjoy the pool!

5/1/09

Looks like a down year, as we're currently only sitting at 27 entries. But picks can still be turned in today... so keep 'em coming! I'll get the Picks spreadsheet and Current Standings posted late tonight.

We also had a suggestion to create a Facebook group for Movie Pool participants. I'm usually against joining 'groups' in Facebook, but this sounds like a cool idea. It'll at least help Mike with making posters, as he'll need our photos to do so. I'll make one up later today.

4/28/09

Just a few days left! Get those picks in!

Also, this summer we're going to get the occasional commentary from one of our longest-standing players, David Logan. This is the kind of input he badly wants to share with us all for the next several months...


It is with profound gratitude and great humility that I accept your nomination of part-time semi-weekly summermoviepool.com website board updater person.

Now look at this serious piece of movie news.


 
Megan Fox Pictures!

"Jonah Hex", starring Old Fashioned Megan Fox and presumably other people, is now filming in Louisiana, and since I don't actually care about a script for this movie, they've got the green-light to just go for it.

Just do it, put her in a white cotton dress and douse her with water. This movie would make 100 billion dollars.
David



Nice work, David. And yes, I've finally finished the banner.

4/20/09

There are 10 days left to play, and the picks are starting to roll in.

Due to the constant spamming of the tagboard, we've removed it completely, and are in the process of coming up with an alternative. It might involve registration to the site, with a basic username and password to access the site, or it could simply be the format of typing an odd-shaped word to 'approve' the entered tag (I'm sure you've seen these before on websites). Jaime's working on it now.

Get those picks in soon! And yes, we're still working on the new header banner :)

4/8/09

Welcome back, everyone! Hopefully you've all received the invite e-mail and you're working on your picks. I am currently in the process of updating the pages of the website. Just like every offseason, the tagboard is still pretty spammed up, and Jaime is looking into it. I'm working on a new header banner for 2009 (last year's was created by Jaime), but if you think that you can make one better, feel free to do so. Don't forget, your picks and $$$ are due by May 1st (the first movie of the summer actually opens on Friday, May 1st).