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2006 Summer Movie Pool
Finally updated the Final Standings, as well as the Hall of Boneheads. Congrats to everyone who made that list :)
Awwwwwwwww... $2 million. Thanks to Prada. that was all that prevented me from going 10-for-10 this year. Twice now I've gotten 10 out of the top 11 picks. This thing's finally over, and based on a Deviation Score of 11-29, I've wrapped up 1st Place for the 5th time in 10 years (this ought to buy me some time from Todd's criticisms). Greg was the only other person to get 9 correct picks, and he won $50.00 for 2nd Place in just his first year of playing. Nice job, Greg. And as I've mentioned previously, Dennis won the Bonehead Award. Here's are this year's payouts:
Nothing really new this weekend, other than Pirates finally eclipsing $400 million and Prada finally passing Break-Up. Talladega keeps making money, and should enter the Top-10 by this Friday.
Well, I was hoping that 20th Century Fox would finally pull Prada from the theaters, but after making another $2 million in 1,100+ theaters this past weekend, I guess that wasn't the case. By this time next week, Prada will have overtaken Break-Up in the standings. But also by that time, Talladega should have passed both of them. A quick guesstimation (yes, I know that's not a real word) of the final standings looks something like this:
$47 million opening for Talladega Nights. Sweet! But there's still one more movie to come out, and it's a critical one for Greg. For a while now, Greg's been silently sitting on 8 correct picks. He also picked Talladega, and it should finish higher than the current #9 and #10 movies (Break-Up and Prada), giving him 9 correct picks. Now it comes down to his last pick: this week's World Trade Center. It only has 3 weekends, however, to pull in over $117 million. If it does, then he's a perfect 10-for-10. If not...............
Well, I certainly saw this one coming. An opening of $25 million in the last weekend of July is definitely not going to cut it. So with the failure of Miami Vice, I'm now in the driver's seat. If I can get a solid opening ($40+ million) this weekend for Talladega Nights, then I should win outright. But if it tanks, then we're looking at a 7-way tie with 9 correct picks. I did some calculating, and assuming Talladega finishes with more than $70 million, I should still be able win the tiebreaker. Wouldn't you know that the biggest threat comes from Larry. I've barely mentioned his name this year, but the top of his list is doing exactly as he projected. Good job, Larry. And it pretty much doesn't matter what Prada does, as even if it bumps Break-Up down a spot, I should still have the #10 movie either way, still leaving me with 9 correct picks (unless World Trade Center or Barnyard hit it big). Worst-case scenario for me would be if Talladega bombs so badly that it finishes lower than Poseidon. Here's hoping that all of the rednecks of the United States flock to see their precious Nascar. Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeoooooooooooooooooooooot!!!
Four new threats (Lady In the Water, Monster House, Clerks II, and My Super Ex-Girlfriend), and none of them made more than $23 million. Cross those movies off the list.
No more Nacho... The Devil Wears Prada took care of that. But it's also doing a little too well. It just jumped into #10 with another $10.5 million last weekend, and I'm praying that it tops out at about $105 million. Click should finish at over $130 million, but it looks like Break-Up is about done. Maybe $118 million, tops. As I've said earlier, only 3 films have made over $110 million and failed to make Top 10. Prada certainly has my attention. Hey Larry, why didn't you pick this one?
WOW! So many records broken!
So much work to do. Hang the curtains... paint the cabinets... dig out and move the sprinkler heads... hook up my new 60" TV... Ok, that one clearly wasn't a gripe. I just wanted to tell you about my new toy. The Sony Grand Wega SXRD. Consumer Reports and I both highly recommend it.
I'll be updating the website by tomorrow morning. Still very busy.
Well, I've finally moved into my new house, so things are pretty hectic over here. This also means that I'm taking the week off from work, and I won't be able to correctly update the Current Standings until I have access to Frontpage. The basic update has been uploaded, but the vertical text needs to be edited. Not like it's difficult to read, however.
Poor George. To whoever posted that the photo gallery was boring, Justin decided to take some action... and George is his victim. Feel free to e-mail me any creative images, and they'll get posted.
Say no to Nachoooooooooooooooooooooooo ($27 mil), as well as Fast and Furious 3 ($24 mil), Lake House ($13 mil), and Garfield 2 ($7 mil). What a terrible weekend. Maybe word-of-mouth will help these films. I doubt it. Assuming these numbers are accurate, and assuming Nacho doesn't make Top-10 (not at this pace), and also assuming that The Break-Up DOES make Top-10 (already at $92 million), that now leaves only three people who are 6-for-6 in their selections (Steve, Justin and Macke). Of course, Macke didn't pick next weekend's Click, and boy, are they marketing the hell out of that film. You might not be a fan of Adam Sandler, but his movies make some serious cash. All I can say is that there won't be three perfect picks after next weekend.
$62 million. Not exactly the opening I was expecting for Cars. The same can be said for the reviews in Rotten Tomatoes (only 78%/78%). It opened in 5th place among the all-time animated openings. But with heavy competition this summer (Over the Hedge is already at $130 million), I'd expect it to finish in the low-to-mid $200's Top Animated Openings
Heyyyyyyy... don't rush those results. The actuals came in for this past weekend, and The Break-Up did just a teeny bit better than projected, pulling in $39.2 million. I think that might be enough, considering there won't be any 'date movie' competition until Click comes out June 23rd. But this is where those bad reviews might come in to play. Now we'll see what kind of word-of-mouth it gets (though it seems both Jaime and George loved it on their date last weekend). Here's something else to think of... Break-Up had the 3rd highest opening ever for a romantic comedy. The other movies in the Top-6? None of them grossed less than $120 million. It also has the highest average per theater grossing of any of the listed films: Top Romantic Comedy Openings
Who saw this coming? I figured X-Men 3 would crack $100 million over the holiday weekend, but I never expected it to be the #1 Memorial Day weekend opening ever with $120 million. The previous record was held by 2004's Shrek 2 with $95 million. It also wound up being the 5th best 4-Day opening of all time: All Time 4-Day None of us picked it lower than 5th, and it's already looking like a Top-2 film.
I finally made it to work yesterday, so I updated the Current Standings. Not a big fan of the vertical text editing for .php coding :( Many, many, many unnecessary (but evidently necessary) steps.
Uhhhhh... I feel horrible. Sorry for the delay in the update, but you'll have to wait a little longer for the Current Standings page to get updated (I don't have MS Frontpage at home, and evidently it's necessary for the vertical names in .php code). If I show up for work tomorrow, I'll take care of it then. If not, we'll try on Thursday (I'm off on Wed). Anyway, until then, you can view the standings by opening this week's Excel file in Weekly Spreadsheets.
Hey, look at that... Poseidon is in 2nd place! I guess I was wrong about that movie ;) What I really want to know is how many of you who picked it actually went out and saw it. Anyone? Let me know what you thought... b/c not many others thought much of it, evidenced by a 31% freshness rating in Rotten Tomatoes (only 27% by the Cream of the Crop). That got me thinking, what was the worst-reviewed film that made Top-10? Well, immediately I found that last year, The Longest Yard got a 29% rating (but Cream of the Crop was 41%). And since we care more about hearing from Roger Ebert with the Chicago Sun-Times than some joker like Rob Blackwelder with 'Splicedwire', I dug deeper... but not for too much longer. Last year's Fantastic Four got a 25% freshness rating from BOTH the regular joes and the Cream of the Crop. Ouch! Yet it still pulled in over $150 million. But then again, it made $56 million in its opening weekend. Surprisingly, FF wasn't the worst movie I found. Tada! That award goes to last year's Monster-In-Law, with a freshness rating of 17% (13% by Cream of the Crop). HOW DID THIS MAKE TOP 10?! And it only made $23 million in its opening weekend. 2004's Van Helsing made a good run at the top spot (22% and 16%), as did 2002's Mr. Deeds (23% and 17%), and 2001's Tomb Raider (18% and 22%). This just tells me how dumb America is. So there's still hope for some of you yet.
After last year's Summer opening debacle with 'Kingdom of Heaven', Hollywood did it right by starting things off with 'M:I3'. While the opening numbers weren't anywhere near the projections ($48.0 million vs. $71 million), they still were good enough to be Top-10 worthy. Leslie, you might want to be a bit concerned, as I don't see it finishing #1. But who knows? I'm sure word of mouth will be positive, as everyone I've talked to who saw it liked it a lot. I loved it. My wife didn't... but what do you expect from a movie like this? Guns, gadgets and explosions (and running)? Exactly! No one missed out on this opening week hit.
29 entries. 29! Thanks to numerous requests (and a pot of $290.00), we're going to add a 2nd place prize. Here are this summer's payouts:
We've got 22 submissions so far (surpassing last year's total), and I know of a few more that are on the way. Nice job! To those of you who haven't yet paid, get your money in ASAP. I also have a PayPal account if you don't want to mail a check (firstname.lastname@example.org). Just keep in mind that because PayPal charges me a fee for every transaction I receive, you'll need to add $0.60 for every $10.00 that you send me. Some of you have used this payment method in the past. But if you don't like that option, just mail a check. Get it to me soon.
The tagboard and poll questions are operational. I will change the banner some more but I wanted to have an accuarte showing of some of this years movies. Look for changes there as I get some time (and ideas).
Welcome back, everyone! Hopefully you're all currently working on your picks. The invite e-mail has already been sent out to all of the returning players, and I am currently in the process of updating the pages of the website. As of now, the tagboard and poll question are not working properly, and Jaime is in the process of fixing them. He's also creating a new header banner, so stay tuned. Don't forget, your picks are due by May 1st
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