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|Now that we have the selection analysis, which "major" movie did you not pick but now wish you had?
2018 Summer Movie Pool
Ok this is your last weekend update by Berg, as Chapman is back in town. Until next time..... deuces.
Current Top 10:
FINALLY we get some action this summer. The last time we had a SMP start this slowly it was kicked off by Kingdom of Heaven. Yeesh. Thank you Deadpool 2 for bringing the action, the laughs, and the big bucks. $125M later and it's the star of the Standings. That kind of opening should certainly put it in the Top 5, and its average placement of 3.4 is looking pretty good. Book Club ($13M) and Show Dogs ($6M), not so much.
Next weekend we get another elite release in Solo: A Star Wars Story. Will be interesting to see this and DP2 duke it out over the upcoming weeks.
Oops still no Chapman this weekend. Good thing Berg has it covered. Whew.
Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Deadpool 2 - 133M (133M)
3) Book Club - 11.2M (11.2M)
4) Show Dogs - 8.2M (8.2M)
5) Life of the Party - 7.3M (30.3M)
6) Breaking In - 6.8M (29.5M)
7) Overboard - 5.7M (38M)
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Deadpool 2 = 84% (67% by the Top Critics)
Book Club = 59% (59% by the Top Critics)
Show Dogs = 26% (33% by the Top Critics)
Deadpool 2 = 4,349
Book Club = 2,781
Show Dogs = 3,145
Deadpool 2 = A
Book Club = A-
Show Dogs = A-
Alright, your buddy Berg is back with some analysis of our 2018 Summer Movie Pool picks. Enjoy!
31 different movies were selected this summer, which is 7 more than 2017. The loss of Avengers: Infinity War may have had a little something to do with that, forcing people to go in other (some crazy) directions. Love it! Of the 31 selected, while the choices for Bonehead amazingly get uglier each year, this year we have 5 that are legit Bonehead-worthy, 2 of them being Limited-release. Here's a tip for all: Criteria #1 for making a selction should be "Is my movie going Wide release?" If not, cross it off. Just 2 minutes of research can save someone a summer of embarassment lol. While I stand by my annual advice of "nobody really knows anything", we do know that Limited-release movies will NEVER make Top 10. But hey, for those that choose to go their own way, we thank you for the laughs :D
Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each 'major' movie this summer (Wide release + a minumum 10 selections):
Life of the Party - May 11
10 people / Avg placement = 8.3 / Highest placement = 5
With the move of Infinity War, 10 players hoped to capitalize on our first real option of the summer. It didn't work out.
Deadpool 2 - May 18
68 people / Avg placement = 3.4 / Highest placement = 1
A unanimous selection, wisely so. Early negative fanboy reviews be damned.
Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 25
67 people / Avg placement = 2.4 / Highest placement = 1
1 player doesn't like Star Wars. Interestinggggg. Production troubles be damned.
Hereditary - June 8
11 people / Avg placement = 8.9 / Highest placement = 6
We nearly always see a horror/thriller make the cut, and if it's going to happen in 2018 this could be the one. The buzz is big... but I didn't think either trailer showed the goods. Def a risky pick.
Ocean's 8 - June 8
57 people / Avg placement = 7.8 / Highest placement = 3
We have our big-name female-centric flick of the summer. And the tie-in to the original Ocean's trilogy helps keeps dudes interested. Smart.
The Incredibles 2 - June 15
67 people / Avg placement = 2.6 / Highest placement = 1
Apparently 1 person doesn't like Pixar. Big mistake. The original is my very favorite Pixar of all, and this is my personal #1 choice of 2018.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 22
68 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
Another unanimous decision. Looks better than the original JW, which startled up $652M in 2015. We'll take half that this year. Easy lock.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - June 29
12 people / Avg placement = 8.6 / Highest placement = 7
LOVE the bold picks, but I just couldn't do it myself. The original made $46M in 2015, so the jump to $100M+ may be a stretch. But it is a weak list overall, so you never know.
Ant-Man and the Wasp - July 6
65 people / Avg placement = 5.0 / Highest placement = 2
It's Marvel. Enough said. The original made $180M in 2015. This could do even more now that we are past the skeptecism. And we need to see how this ties into Infinity War.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - July 13
49 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 4
The originals did $148M and then $169M in 2015 (so many 2015 references), so maybe the trend continues. Or just tanks. Does Adam Sandler even matter anymore? I'm thinking parents gotta take the little kids to see something.
Skyscraper - July 13
39 people / Avg placement = 8.5 / Highest placement = 6
After last year's "confident" Rock didn't make Top 10 (mostly due to douchey Zac Efron) we get "family man / reluctant hero" Rock. A swing movie, with just over half of us banking on this version to bring in the cash.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - July 20
23 people / Avg placement = 8.5 / Highest placement = 6
No. Just no. I had it in my first list and couldn't live with the selection. The original made $144M way back in 2008, and I'm not sure if there was ever a demand for another one.
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - July 27
66 people / Avg placement = 6.3 / Highest placement = 4
The ultimate summer movie franchise. Always a blast. The last one (also in... wait for it... 2015) made $195M, so all but 2 players should be feeling good about the selection.
Disney's Christopher Robin - August 3
17 people / Avg placement = 7.9 / Highest placement = 5
A tough selection with only a teaser trailer to work with at cutoff time. Aside from the Alice sequel, Disney live action versions of their animated films have performed quite impressively.
The Meg - August 10
14 people / Avg placement = 9.2 / Highest placement = 4
I love this selection. Huge risk with only 3 full box office weekends, but could be pretty fun. And comes out right on the heels of Shark Week.
I may not have picked all of them, but these are the movies I really want to see the most in theaters: Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdon, Under the Silver Lake, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Mission: Impossible - Fallout. I have MoviePass, so as long as it's still operational I'll see them all.
I hope everyone enjoys this summer as much as I will. Too bad Sponge ONCE AGAIN has identical picks as me. Stop doing that!!!
Hey all! Your buddy Berg is back with some weekend analysis while Chapman is away on the other side of the Earth. Well, wherever he is it's not the US of A. I know you missed me, and a proper recap, so here we go!
Current Top 10:
Two weeks in and it's Overboard still sitting atop the list. Take a picture, TJV, as this is the last time you'll see it there. Looks like Melissa McCarthy wasn't any Life of the Party, as thanks to an opening of only $18M we've got our first bomb of the summer. 10+ people taking a movie is recognized as a "major" selection in SMP-land, and now 11 players are sad. Thanks, MM. Breaking In was even worse with $16M, and of the three who selected it, xwolf612 took BOTH new releases. That ties Tanner as the only players with two stinkers so far. Doh!
And our Bonehead race just heated up with the addition of ChargersEd's sleeper pick Revenge. Maybe it was a misclick when his entry was made? I really hope so, as $46K is no bueno.
Coming into the 2nd weekend of the 2018 Summer Movie Pool we have 3 new contenders, all 3 picked by SMP veterans, and marking the comeback of long-time vet Kurt Weierstall. Do they know something we don't? We will see at the close of the weekend but early estimates don't look promising.
Box Office Mojo's weekend predictions
1. Avengers: Infinity War (4,474 theaters) - $62.0 M
2. Life of the Party (3,656 theaters) - $21.0 M
3. Breaking In (2,537 theaters) - $18.0 M
4.Overboard (2,006 theaters) - $9.0 M
...and Revenge is opening in limited release so they don't have a predicition (hopefully higher than last weeks Guardians).
Weekend Releases Rotten Tomatoes Scores
1. Revenge 90% FRESH!
2. Life of the party 38% ROTTEN!
3. Breaking In 34% ROTTEN!
Happy Birthday to my second in command, Stevie Steve! I couldn't do it without you, buddy!
Weekend one is in the bag! Congrats to the 68 players making it the second highest attendance for the summer movie pool in 21 years. The prize money breaks down as follows:
1st Place = $500.00
2nd Place = $100.00
3rd Place = $30.00
Bonehead Award = $10.00
The remaining $40 will apply towards administration to the website(domain and hosted server maintenance). A nice haul for the champ. This year we are also raising the bounty with custom trophies for both the first-place winner and the bonehead - expect to see these trophies shortly - they arent quite ready for primetime just yet...
On to the weekly breakdown - No suprises as Avengers 3 once again dominated the box office with $112.5 million, pushing it over the billion dollar mark, making history with it becoming the fastest film to make it to a billion dollars. The second place film, new release Overboard, clocked in at a respectable 14.75 mil. Probably not enough to carry it to the top 15 this year, but much better than the $7,479 that Guardians pulled in (no zeroes are left off that number) - making it a strong contender for the Bonehead award, but maybe they will extend the theatre count beyond the single theatre it was released in. Now that everyones picks are out there for scorn and ridicule, we can take a look at where everybody sits, and start counting down until the end where players see themselves fall out of contention as their movie drops from 3rd place, to 4th place, to fifth. I've been there. It sucks.
7 identical picks - ctouart, jklein, jmoore, naustin, nritchey, swang, wwhitten
5 identical picks - cmcmillan, cperone, jspence, kcantrell, kchoomack
5 identical picks - afranklin, madolphus, mwalters, sberg, tfiore
4 identical picks - garredondo, jfhartle, lvu, mchapman
2 identical picks - jballard, kperone
2 identical picks - mmcmahon, mmcpherson
2 identical picks - dberg, harendall
2 identical picks - faro75, jheine
2 identical picks - dlogan, wadolphus
2 identical picks - hmartin, llogan
2 identical picks - dreese, gmandella
2 identical picks - eacayan, wjones
If you didn't make the list above, congratulations! you get to sit back and relax if your pics do well as you will have nobody to compete with and not suffer like the souls above who didn't march to the beat of their own drummer, like you have. One of those souls gets the added bonus of coming out of the gate on fire, selecting two films in the first weekend of summer. If the prize money went to, "who is in first place after the first weekend", you would be the winner! Unfortunately, the only thing that your picks got you was two movie pool posters, which in some people's eyes, is worth more than the prize money! Congrats Ted, you earned it!
22 players with no selections were removed from this year's SMP. We have 68 completed entries. Awesome! Next up... identifying payments. If you still haven't paid your $10 entry be sure to hit us up at email@example.com to be provided directions.
All non-selected Limited release movies were removed as well. All Wide releases remained so that they don't have to be re-added manually once they make $$$. The 2018 Original Picks can now be viewed in Excel format in the Weekly Spreadsheets page. Enjoy!
It's 2018 SMP time!!! Registration is now closed, and the Startup Links including the Make Picks page have been disabled and removed. There are 85 listings in the Scoreboard, but 17 of those are 2017 players who did not return. Those players will be removed. Limited release movies that were not selected will also be removed from the Standings to help tidy things up.
Best of luck to those who selected movies this weekend. They are not Avengers: Infinity War, so their box office will certainly be lacking.
Let's get this started!!! Ehhhh not a strong intro to the summer with the loss of Avengers: Infinity War. Yuck.
Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
2) Overboard - 14M (14M)
6) Tully - 3.9M (3.9M)
9) Bad Samitarian - 1.9M (1.9M)
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Overboard = 30% (36% by the Top Critics)
Tully = 90% (90% by the Top Critics)
Bad Samitarian = 55% (27% by the Top Critics)
Overboard = 1,623
Tully = 1,353
Bad Samitarian = 2,007
Overboard = A-
Tully = n/a
Bad Samitarian = B-
Last chance to get your picks in before the site locks down and Registration is closed. ~24 hours remain.
30 payments are in already, and only 3 days left to get those picks in and payments made. We know the rest will come pouring in quickly. Last year was a record 70 participants, so let's see if we can shatter that record.
One week left!! The picks and payments are starting to roll in, so don't get left behind. You can enter your picks and then make edits at any time up until game-lock: 5/3/18 at 11:59pm PST.
So Marvel Studios pulled a fast one on us and recently moved our no-brainer #1 movie up and out of the summer window. That's a shame as Avengers: Infinity War is NOT a selectable film (April movies do not count in the SMP), yet is projected to do $235M. What resulted is the elimination of a movie that EVERYONE would have picked, thus creating a more challenging pool. I don't know about you but I'm really having a tough time deciding on my bottom-of-the-list movies.
Since the 2018 invite had gone out to all players we've had a couple inquiries regarding Avengers: Infinity War and Marvel's late decision to move the release date up from May 4 to April 27. We certainly appreciate the input you've provided, and we'd like to take this opportunity to identify our stance.
Avengers will not be part of the SMP this year, as it moved right out of our summer timeframe. There is precedent, as Fast Five did the same thing in 2011, having moved up from the original June 10 date to April 29. The decision was made then to not create an exception, and we all enjoyed a great summer. Avengers' departure isn't necessarily a bad thing, as it's a pretty safe bet that 100% of players would have picked it, most likely atop their list. Not much competitiveness there. A concern is if studios continue this trend, where do we stop? Two other F&F movies came out in early April, and the highest-grossing April movie ever (The Jungle Book) came out on April 15. If we allow late-April, soon it will be middle-April. And then it will become early-April. At some point we just have to stick to the summer schedule, and if the studios make changes, so be it. I'm personally looking forward to a pool that doesn't included a guaranteed Top Three film that most likely EVERYONE would pick.
Who's ready for Year XXI of the most awesome annual Summer Movie Pool everrrrrrrrrrr?!?! New banner... check (another great one from Chapman). Cleaned up site pages... check. New list of 2018 summer movies entered... check. Game on!!!
2016 saw a 3% increase from 2015 with a total $4.3B, but 2017 sure gave it all back with $3.7B - the worst summer in 11 years. While we had our monster hits in May (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $389M), June (Wonder Woman - $407M), and July (Spider-Man: Homecoming - $320M), where was August?? Not a single marquee film in a month that was led by $81M for Annabelle: Creation. Yeahhhh that's no good.
WW came as a bit of a surprise finishing #1, as it's average placement was 4.6. GOTG2 only missed #1 by $20M, nearly matching it's own avg place rating of 1.1. And Spidey's #3 finish was spot on it's avg place rating of 3.6. Even Despicable Me 3 finishing #4 closely matched it's avg place rating of 3.3. Collectively we weren't too far off for each of the remaining Top 10 films... but where in the heck did Girls Trip come from? I looked back at my initial research and I had it at $44M. NO ONE saw this coming. To think that just $110M would have made Top 10 for any other film this summer. I'm looking at you, The Mummy :( 19 movies so far this year have earned at least $110M, but only 9 during the summer.
Geez, are we looking at only 8 in 2018? This summer we had 12 sequels/reboots with only 3 exceeding their previous installment. 2016 had 14 and 4. You'd think at some point Hollywood would wake up.
For the SMP, once again 8 was the magic number, and we had 15 players hit that mark. Big tiebreaker! And for the EIGHTH straight year we've had someone new win the top prize. Congrats to xfactor (Mike McPherson) for becoming our 15th different person to win in our 20 total years. Things got a little hairy there at the end with the final shuffling, but Mike was able to keep the second-placers at arm's length to win in just his 3rd year of playing. Nice work!
Mike wins the 1st Place prize of $500 - our biggest payout yet!. Brandon and Kevin tied for 2nd Place, so they split the 2nd + 3rd prize money for $80 each. Great work in your very first SMPs! Just emember, EVERYONE has a shot at winning this thing.
And we can't forget our beloved Bonehead Award. Amityville: The Awakening did not make any $$$, so it did not qualify for the Bonehead. That leaves us with The Wall ($1.8M) which happened to be selected by not one or two, but THREE players. Ok we've never had a three-way tie for the Bonehead. This just keeps getting better! Our "winners" Ted Venable, Justin Kane, and Lindsay Pate all get to share the $10 prize. Congrats! lol
Here are our previous winners:
2017 - Mike McPherson
2016 - Curt Perone
2015 - Mario Nelson
2014 - Mark Adolphus
2013 - Ally Mauro
2012 - Sponge
2011 - Kelly Peterson
2010 - Kurt Weierstall
2009 - Steve Berg
2008 - Justin Klein
2007 - Tim Driscoll
2006 - Steve Berg
2005 - Larry Pennington
2004 - Chic Meyers
2003 - Todd Fiore / Dave Logan / Jaime McGauley (tie)
2002 - Steve Berg
2001 - Steve Berg
2000 - Mike Chapman
1999 - Steve Berg
1998 - Steve Berg
The rules of the game are simple. Select a Top Ten list of summer movies, and then rank them in the order that you believe they will finish. The pool runs from May 1 to Aug 31, so the only eligible movies are those that release within that date range. Your picks AND entry fee must be submitted before the site locks for the summer.
The process for RETURNING MEMBERS couldn't be easier:
1) Log in
2) Make Picks
Those who played in 2017 are already registered on the site. Your User Name should be your first initial + last name (example: TStark). The Scoreboard page has been left open to help identify. If you've forgotten your password just send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to have your profile deleted. You can then re-create a new one.
The process for NEW MEMBERS and those who skipped 2017 is almost as easy:
1) Register (follow the criteria listed on the page)
2) Log in
3) Make Picks
The cutoff for entries is the first Friday of May, so the time to confirm entries and track payments will be limited. As such, the deadline for submitting your picks will be the first Thursday of May at 11:59pm PST. At that point the site will lock and no further entries will be accepted. The entire month of April is more than enough time to assemble your picks and submit them.
On May 4 all picks will be revealed on the Current Standings page. Enjoy... and good luck!!
We are working on a new ShoutBox for the site. Looks like the old one died.
We're close to the start of the 2018 Summer Movie Pool, and the website is currently being updated for the upcoming season. Now is the perfect time to research this summer's movies and start building your lists. The email invite to 2017's participants will go out soon.
For now, feel free to check out the Previous Years, Official Posters, Photo Gallery, and Hall of Boneheads links to reminisce. Stay tuned!