Hey all! We’re now in our 3rd weekend of the summer, and it’s never too late for some analysis and commentary of our 2024 Summer Movie Pool picks. Enjoy!
For the second straight year we’ve had an uptick in the number of different movies selected, as this year our count is the second-most ever at 31. That’s interesting, as despite having 22 participants fewer than the 3-year average of 2017-2019 our current quantity of movies selected is the most since 2014 (35). For any concerns previously made about how “everyone will pick the same movies this summer,” that clearly wasn’t the case. It’s great to see so many chances taken by players to try to separate themselves from the pack. Thankfully no movies have shifted entirely out of the summer timeframe since the start, though we did have one player mistakenly pick a movie that shifted out prior to the picks deadline. Whoops. And it looks like we’ve got quite a bit of competition for the Bonehead Award 🙂
While making my own picks I personally counted 13 legit contenders for Top 10 status, but we’ve seen time and time again that anything can happen. In fact, over the duration of the SMP we’ve had 13 movies make the Top 10 that were picked by NO ONE. We even had all 30 players in 2009 completely overlook The Hangover, which finished #4 at $270M. Just remember, nobody really knows anything when it comes to the summer box office.
Below are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie (10+ selections this year) among our 43 players. The majority of picks gravitated around this same collection of movies, so placement will certainly be critical.
At quick glance, we have 12 movies selected by 10+ players. 4 different movies selected at #1. 2 different pairs of movies were selected in the same weekend (5/24 + 6/28). No ‘major’ selections in the month of August. Had Borderlands (8/9 with 6 picks) released one week sooner I’m betting it would have made this list, but understandably they chose to distance themselves from Deadpool & Wolverine.
| # Players | Avg. Placement | Highest Pick | ||
| 5/3 | The Fall Guy | 33 | 6.6 | #1 |
| 5/10 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 40 | 5.5 | #2 |
| 5/17 | IF | 23 | 5.6 | #2 |
| 5/24 | Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | 40 | 6.2 | #2 |
| 5/24 | The Garfield Movie | 23 | 7.6 | #5 |
| 6/7 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die | 33 | 6.5 | #3 |
| 6/14 | Inside Out 2 | 41 | 2.6 | #1 |
| 6/28 | A Quiet Place: Day One | 37 | 6.3 | #2 |
| 6/28 | Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | 11 | 8.8 | #5 |
| 7/3 | Despicable Me 4 | 42 | 2.8 | #1 |
| 7/19 | Twisters | 31 | 7.3 | #3 |
| 7/26 | Deadpool & Wolverine | 43 | 1.9 | #1 |
The Fall Guy
Picked by the majority, but enough players ignored it to indicate that it’s not a lock. 2 people have it at #1. A surprisingly average placement for the first movie of the summer, but I guess that’s to be expected when it’s not a Marvel movie. In fact, only 2 of the prior 15 pools started off with a non-Marvel movie, and both were complete non-factors: 2019’s The Intruder (35M) and 2018’s Overboard (50M).
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Nearly unanimous as only 3 players didn’t pick it, and its highest selection is at #2. Based on the successes of the prior trilogy movies ($176M, $208M, $146M) we shouldn’t be too worried about its chances. Right? The lack of any truly recognizable faces in this newest installment could be concerning, but I have faith in director Wes Ball. Go Noles!
IF
Our first true “wildcard” of the summer, as just over half of our players picked it with several having it as their #2. We’ve got an original story directed by John Krasinski and it stars a TON of our favorite actors, both in voice and character. The original teaser and trailers screamed of being kid-friendly and family fun, so those that selected it are really hoping it delivers as advertised.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Nearly unanimous as only 3 players didn’t pick it, and its highest selection is at #2. Building on the success of 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road ($154M) we should be in for a real treat based on those amazing visuals. George Miller. Anya Taylor-Joy. Chris Hemsworth. Who wouldn’t love this collective talent? We can only hope that the casual fan isn’t turned off by a 9-year gap in the franchise, or perhaps… prequel-itis. I personally don’t care, as this is my most anticipated movie of the summer!
The Garfield Movie
Our other true “wildcard” of the summer, as just over half of our players picked it, the highest being at #5. Opening the same weekend as Furiosa won’t be an issue as it’s not competing for the same audience. I personally didn’t pick it based on potential Chris Pratt-fatigue, as the dude is EVERYWHERE. And how many kids today even know who Garfield is? But I guess ‘if you animate it they will come’, as the early projections look good.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Picked by the majority with its highest selection at #3. Perhaps those that ignored it are forgetting the increasing success of the franchise’s predecessors ($65M, $138M, $206M). America loves its Bad Boys, but I do wonder if Will Smith is now forgiven for The Slap. This movie is situated nicely bring two weeks removed from Furious and no direct competitors the following weekend.
Inside Out 2
Nearly unanimous as only 2 players didn’t pick it. 11 players have it at #1. That had to be an oversight for those 2 players as Pixar has never missed the Top 10. Even 2023’s Elemental, which created a ton of concern due to only a $29M opening, finished at $151M thanks to very strong holds. The original Inside Out (2015) made $356M. Even if this sequel did half that amount it would be a Top 10 lock. This could very well be the first $100M opening of the summer.
A Quiet Place: Day One
Picked by a strong majority of players with its highest selection at #2. The franchise’s predecessors earned $188M and $160M, but this spinoff with a whole new cast (unless you count the creatures) makes it tough to gauge. John Krasinski turned over directing to Michael Sarnoski, who previously directed the highly-acclaimed Pig (2021), so Day One certainly looks promising.
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Picked by 11 players with the highest at #5. A pleasant surprise to see many still appreciate the Western genre. This R-rated 3-hour movie is the first of 4 chapters, with Chapter 2 being released just one and a half months later (1 player picked Chapter 2 perhaps in error?). I personally hope it is really good, but not THAT good since I didn’t pick it 😉
Despicable Me 4
Nearly unanimous as only 1 player didn’t pick it. 11 players have it at #1. Another potential oversight for the 1 player based on the huge success of the franchise’s predecessors ($251M, $368M, $264M). I don’t know much about the Despicable story arc as it’s definitely not my jam, but my dad (Dennis) says that this one is bringing back someone interesting, and that should make for a good movie. And that Kristen Wiig is really good in it. Ok then. I just know that America really loves their Minions, so it’s an obvious lock.
Twisters
Picked by the majority with its highest selection at #3. The original made $241M wayyyy back in 1996(!), so the hesitation by many for a sequel nearly 20 years later is certainly justified. And the argument that this new movie looks no different that the original is also a fair one. But “WE GOT TWINS!! TWINS!!” Glen Powell is coming off an impressive $88M for Anyone But You, and will soon appear in Edgar Wright’s remake of The Running Man, so this movie will prove whether he is a bankable star or not. On a serious note, however, the recent series of tornado disasters across the US might very well have a negative impact on its box office in those territories.
Deadpool & Wolverine
The biggest and (hopefully for most) best is saved for last. The only movie picked unanimously, with 19 players having it at #1. The franchise’s predecessors earned $363M and $324M, and being the only Marvel movie of the summer (with Wolverine!) should easily land it in the Top 3, justifying its 1.9 average placement. Releasing just 1 weekend after Twisters could be tricky, however, and with a 7/26 opening date it only has ~5.5 weekends to make all it’s money for the pool (the 8/31 final date is on a Saturday). Definitely my second-most anticipated movie of the summer.
Mike Chapman