2021 Summer Movie Non-Pool

6/12/21

  

Time for some feel-good movies, as we get a hit musical and a family film this weekend. Once again we get the day-and-date treatment with In the Heights also being available on HBO Max. Boxoffice thinks it will do $24M, but we've already seen movies with this format exceed expectations. Both critics and audience seem to adore it. The audience also loves Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway, which is projected to pull in $13M.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) In the Heights - 24.2M (24.2M)
2) Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway - 13.2M (13.2M)
3) A Quiet Place Part II - 10.5M (107.9M)
4) The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It - 9.4M (43M)
5) Cruella - 7M (56.3M)
6) Spirit Untamed - 3M (11.5M)
7) Wrath of Man - 700K (26.1M)
9) Spiral - 500K (22.9M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
In the Heights = 96% / 96%
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway = 69% / 91%

Theater count:
In the Heights = 3,456
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway = 3,346

CinemaScore ratings:
In the Heights = A
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway = n/a

- SB

6/7/21

Current Top 10:

          

Both The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It ($24.0M) and Spirit Untamed ($6.2M) joined the Top 10, with the former exceeding projections by 25%. Take THAT HBO Max! But like nearly all horror movies it should fade pretty quickly. No threat to the top movie on the list, as we may just see AQP2 hit $100M by next Sunday.

Next Weekend: Now that we've gotten horror out of the way, we finally get the film adaptation of Lin-Manuel Miranda's Broadway hit In the Heights. Also, kiddos get another one with Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway.

6/3/21

  

Two new releases, and it's new horror vs. old horror this weekend. Unfortunately for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, its day-and-date arrangement with HBO Max will keep the box office grosses in check. And look at that... the kids finally get in on the summer with the DreamWorks animation Spirit Untamed. Joy.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) A Quiet Place Part II - 22M (90.4M)
2) The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It - 19.2M (19.2M)
3) Cruella - 11.7M (43.8M)
4) Spirit Untamed - 7.2M (7.2M)
6) Wrath of Man - 1.3M (24.7M)
7) Spiral - 1.1M (22M)
10) Dream Horse - 300K (2.4M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It = 62% / n/a
Spirit Untamed = 48% / 100%

Theater count:
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It = 3,100
Spirit Untamed = 3,211

CinemaScore ratings:
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It = B+
Spirit Untamed = A

- SB

6/1/21

Current Top 10:

         

To no surprise, both A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella took over the top spots in the Top 10. Great to see both movies exceed expectations, particularly AQP2 hitting $57M over the extended weekend. Will be interesting to see if it has legs in a summer like this. I did see Cruella at the theater, and I enjoyed it MUCH more than I thought I would.

Next Weekend: We get both ends of the spectrum with the horror franchise The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It and the animated Spirit Untamed. I'll pass on both, as this will make for a good week to go see AQP2 in Dolby (but I first need to see the original).

- SB

5/28/21

  

TWO blockbusters open this weekend, which is fantastic to see! This Memorial Weekend looks exciting with both A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella finally being released, as both critics and audiences are impressed. AQP2 was originally scheduled for Spring 2020, and the buzz today is just as big as it was then. Cruella was originally scheduled for Christmas 2020 before shifting to Summer 2021, but unlike AQP2 it is getting the day-and-date Disney+ Premier treatment. Naturally, that is going to negatively impact box office $$$, and we all remember the heat Disney took when they started this trend with Mulan. Pretty easy to tell which flick will end the weekend at #1.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) A Quiet Place Part II - 42M (51M)
2) Cruella - 17.5M (22M)
3) Spiral - 1.9M (19.4M)
4) Wrath of Man - 1.8M (21.8M)
6) Those Who Wish Me Dead - 1M (7.4M)
9) Dream Horse - 475K (1.5M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
A Quiet Place Part II = 90% / 95%
Cruella = 73% / 96%

Theater count:
A Quiet Place Part II = 3,726
Cruella = 3,892

CinemaScore ratings:
A Quiet Place Part II = A-
Cruella = A

Everyone have a SAFE and FUN Memorial Day weekend!!

- SB

5/25/21

Current Top 10:

      

Spiral takes #1 this weekend... but is still #2 in our hearts. Nothing new of note over $1M total as the Top 10 has no changes.

Next Weekend: FINALLY it's blockbuster time with both A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella!! Looking forward to seeing how moviegoers respond over the long holiday weekend.

- SB

5/22/21

 

Only one new release of note, and it's not expected to make much of an impact at less than $1M. But the critics and audience love it. Gotta wait another week for a biggie.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Spiral - 4M (15.3M)
2) Wrath of Man - 3M (18.9M)
3) Those Who Wish Me Dead - 1.8M (5.5M)
8) Dream Horse - 800K (800K)
9) Finding You - 550K (1.8M)
10) Profile - 425K (1.4M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Dream Horse = 90% / 97%

Theater count:
Dream Horse = 1,256

CinemaScore ratings:
Dream Horse = n/a

- SB

5/18/21

Current Top 10:

      

Wrath of Man makes it a repeat in the #1 spot with a grand total of $14.5M. Watch out! Spiral was a disappointment earning only $8M against the projected $14M. But you know what WASN'T a disappointment? The Top Gun re-release in Dolby Atmos at AMC! Aggressive soundtrack. Jets screaming throughout the auditorium. Harold Faltermeyer's synth score bounding off the walls. Kenny Loggins never sounded so good!

Next Weekend: Ehhhh it's going to be more of the same as we don't get any new major releases. Just be patient...

- SB

5/15/21

    

Week 2 of Summer Redux tests the waters on the horror front, giving us a spinoff from the Saw franchise. Spiral opens on 2,800+ screens and is projected to do double digits. That's big time right now, but the critics aren't being very nice to it. One surprise we get this weekend is the (moderate) box office release of Zack Snyder's Army of the Dead, in theaters one week before it hits Netflix. BoxOffice.com doesn't even know how to project it right now, as "there is no present confirmation that box office grosses will be reported." So they're slotting it between 2M and 3.5M. Frustratingly it's only playing at Cinemark theaters, and I'm an AMC guy. I guess I'll be waiting a bit.

For my money I'm going to see the Dolby re-release of Top Gun. Danger Zone!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Spiral - 14.8M (14.8M)
2) Wrath of Man - 3.5M (14.4M)
3) Army of the Dead - ???M (???M)
4) Those Who Wish Me Dead - 2M (2M)
9) Profile - 1.1M (1.1M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Spiral = 39% / 76%
Army of the Dead = 67% / 93%
Those Who Wish Me Dead = 63% / 84%
Profile = 61% / 76%

Theater count:
Spiral = 2,811
Army of the Dead = 600
Those Who Wish Me Dead = 2,900
Profile = 2,033

CinemaScore ratings:
Spiral = B-
Army of the Dead = n/a
Those Who Wish Me Dead = B
Profile = B

- SB

5/11/21

Current Top 10:

  

$8.1M for Wrath of Man is a nice start to the summer considering that Guy Ritchie's prior effort (The Gentlemen) opened to $10.6M back in pre-shutdown January 2020. For additional reference, Nobody opened to $6.8M in March. Fingers are crossed for a full summer of movies.

Next Weekend: Four Wide releases including the Saw-spinoff, Spiral.

- SB

5/8/21

  

Hey all! We don't have an active pool this summer due to the continued volatility of the movie industry... but I'll still track the box office as if we were playing. This will be fun keeping tabs on 2021 summer movies, and help prep for SMP 2022. Will track movies that go Wide release and those that earn $1M+. Enjoy!

Wrath of Man is getting some big time love from the Audience. Guy Ritchie + Jason Statham = I'm there!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Wrath of Man - 7.7M (7.7M)
8) Here Today - 0.8M (0.8M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Wrath of Man = 67% / 93%
Here Today = 49% / 96%

Theater count:
Wrath of Man = 2,875
Here Today = 1,200

CinemaScore ratings:
Wrath of Man = A-
Here Today = n/a

- SB

4/1/21

Hey all! Well, with the news of the major markets New York and Los Angeles finally opening their doors to moviegoers we really hoped to make the SMP happen this year... but thanks to Box Office Mojo joining forces with IMDbPro our website's automated box office calculations are no longer functional. Grrrrr. And without those weekly figures our site cannot process movie rankings for our Standings. At least, not at the moment. We have a crack team looking into this... but based on where things stand today we unfortunately just won't be able to properly run the SMP in 2021. And that's a real shame as interest among participants was growing in recent weeks, even with the expectation that streaming was going to cut into the box office grosses. Just look at this week's release of Godzilla vs. Kong, as even with it now available on HBOMax it's still projected to do $22M over the weekend for a domestic total of $35M in 5 days. And that's after an international gross of $123M last weekend. AMC theaters in LA are reporting sold out showings (largely due to their limited capacity rules), and I'm seeing the same here at my local AMC. Many folks are itching to go back to seeing movies at the theater, and distributors are doing their part to make the experience as safe as possible.

Since our last post we have seen Disney (again!) bump Black Widow back a couple months to July 9 AND announce day-and-date (Premium) streaming on Disney+. Same for Cruella on 5/28. Free Guy also jumped back a couple months to 8/13. But you know what? They're all still summer movies just waiting to be watched on the big screen. Minions 2, however, did bail on summer 2021 completely and is now planned for 2022. The 2021 summer schedule is admittedly a bit thin, but there are still expected hits in A Quiet Place Part II, F9: The Fast Saga, Top Gun: Maverick and Jungle Cruise. I know I'll be seeing all of them :)

While we won't be able to submit picks this summer, and we won't be tracking full automated standings on the site, we still plan to provide weekly updates on the Home Page just as we used to. I'm personally looking forward to getting back into the swing of things here, so stay tuned for the first posting of box office projections in early May. See you soon!

- SB

2/2/21

Hello everyone!! Taking a moment to check in and see how our friends have all been since we last spoke. 2020 will forever be one of the very worst years in our lifetimes. This pandemic has impacted each of us in different ways, and we hope that each person here has been able to effectively manage the crisis, is healthy, and is safe!

As we all are aware, the theater industry came to a grinding halt just prior to Summer 2020... but there became signs of life as certain markets opened back up starting in August. The theater chains that were able to survive the summer lockdowns devised plans to help protect their customer base, to then lure in moviegoers with re-releases of older hit films. The 10th anniversary of Inception in IMAX became the first big attempt re-introduce normalcy.

Personally speaking, I was excited for theaters to open back up. The concerns with going back into an indoor environment with other customers were very real, but my own mindset was that if my own city wasn't struggling, and AMC could both introduce and enforce rules for safety (including masks, social distancing, and limited ticket sales), AND I could sit away from the crowd in only large auditoriums, I would be fine. And if I didn't like what I was seeing... I was outta there. Here in northeast Florida AMC finally re-opened in late August, and I was there to see Inception in IMAX. And quite honsestly to my surprise... I was the ONLY person there for that showing. One seat filled smack in the center of a giant empty IMAX auditoroum. The theater itself was a ghost-town, and I couldn't tell if it was due to the pandemic or the fact that the movie was a re-release. Fast forward two more days and I'm seeing the longggg-delayed The New Mutants in a crowd of about 40 people. But just as AMC had designed, once you select your seat no one else can sit right next to you in any direction. Being masked up in my private bubble of empty seats, I felt more confident that this would work. Later that week... Tenet. The next night... Raiders of the Lost Ark (my #1 favorite movie of all time). Honest Thief. Wonder Woman. Die Hard (top-5 all time movie for me). Wonder Woman 1984. Monster Hunter. Alien.

The movies originally scheduled for Summer 2020 saw many different destinations, with streaming becoming the most controversial, particularly when it came to the decision of Premium Video On Demand (Mulan). Some studios cashed in quickly to ensure some kind of revenue (Greyhound), others held firm to a theatrical release no matter the financial consequences (Tenet), while others continue to resist the temptation of streaming to ensure future box office grosses (Black Widow). Distributors have not been thrilled (to say the least) with the decision-making of some studios, and an attempt to please most everyone was the strategy for WW84 opening 'day and date' with theatrical + HBO Max. Based on that "success" there is now a long-term plan for 2021 Warner Bros. movies to be released with the same rollout. Good for both HBO Max customers and moviegoers.

Below was our list of 2020 Summer movies and where they eventially wound up. Many of these are currently listed for Summer 2021, so we'll see how that shakes out.


Mulan (orig 3/9/20) -> 7/24/20 -> 8/21/20 -> Disney+ PVOD 9/4/20

Black Widow (5/1/20) -> 11/6/20 -> 5/7/21

Greyhound (5/8/20) -> 6/12/20 -> Apple TV+ 7/10/20

The Woman In the Window (5/15/20) -> Netflix 2021

Scoob! (5/15/20) - HBO Max 6/26/20

The Spongebob Movie: Sponge On the Run (5/22/20) -> 8/14/20 ($4.8M) + PVOD 2021

F9 (5/22/20) -> 4/2/21 -> 5/28/21

Wonder Woman 1984 (6/5/20) -> 10/2/20 -> 12/25/20 ($39.2M) + HBO Max

Soul (6/19/20) -> 11/20/20 -> Disney+ 12/25/20

Top Gun: Maverick (6/26/20) -> 12/23/20 -> 7/2/21

In the Heights (6/26/20) - 6/18/21 + HBO Max

Free Guy (7/3/20) -> 12/11/20 -> 5/21/21

Minions: The Rise of Gru (7/3/20) -> 7/2/21

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7/10/20) -> 3/5/21 -> 6/11/21 -> 11/11/21

Tenet (7/17/20) -> 7/31/20 -> 8/12/20 -> 9/3/20 ($57.9M)

Jungle Cruise (7/24/20) -> 7/30/21

Morbius (7/10/20) -> 7/31/20 -> 3/19/21 -> 10/8/21 -> 1/21/22

Bill & Ted Face the Music (8/21/20) -> 8/14/20 -> 8/28/20 -> 9/1/20 -> 8/27/20 ($3.4M) + PVOD


With 2020 now behind us and vaccinations in effect, there is hope that we will have a Summer 2021 season. But we have a long way to go before it can be determined if there will be a SMP 2021. At this moment I count approx. 20 summer movies that are SMP-worthy... but it remains to be seen if they will hold their dates. We will let this play out a bit longer before making a decision, so keep your fingers crossed!

With so much sadness, anxiety and frustration all around us these days, we plan to do our best to make this movie site as enjoyable as possible as an escape from the madness :D

- SB