2021 Summer Movie Pool

5/15/21

    

Week 2 of Summer Redux tests the waters on the horror front, giving us a spinoff from the Saw franchise. Spiral opens on 2,800+ screens and is projected to do double digits. That's big time right now, but the critics aren't being very nice to it. One surprise we get this weekend is the (moderate) box office release of Zack Snyder's Army of the Dead, in theaters one week before it hits Netflix. BoxOffice.com doesn't even know how to project it right now, as "there is no present confirmation that box office grosses will be reported." So they're slotting it between 2M and 3.5M. Frustratingly it's only playing at Cinemark theaters, and I'm an AMC guy. I guess I'll be waiting a bit.

For my money I'm going to see the Dolby re-release of Top Gun. Danger Zone!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Spiral - 14.8M (14.8M)
2) Wrath of Man - 3.5M (14.4M)
3) Army of the Dead - ???M (???M)
4) Those Who Wish Me Dead - 2M (2M)
9) Profile - 1.1M (1.1M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Spiral = 39% / 76%
Army of the Dead = 67% / 93%
Those Who Wish Me Dead = 63% / 84%
Profile = 61% / 76%

Theater count:
Spiral = 2,811
Army of the Dead = 600
Those Who Wish Me Dead = 2,900
Profile = 2,033

CinemaScore ratings:
Spiral = B-
Army of the Dead = n/a
Those Who Wish Me Dead = B
Profile = B

- SB

5/11/21

Current Top 10:

  

$8.1M for Wrath of Man is a nice start to the summer considering that Guy Ritchie's prior effort (The Gentlemen) opened to $10.6M back in pre-shutdown January 2020. For additional reference, Nobody opened to $6.8M in March. Fingers are crossed for a full summer of movies.

Next Weekend: Four Wide releases including the Saw-spinoff, Spiral.

- SB

5/8/21

  

Hey all! We don't have an active pool this summer due to the continued volatility of the movie industry... but I'll still track the box office as if we were playing. This will be fun keeping tabs on 2021 summer movies, and help prep for SMP 2022. Will track movies that go Wide release and those that earn $1M+. Enjoy!

Wrath of Man is getting some big time love from the Audience. Guy Ritchie + Jason Statham = I'm there!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Wrath of Man - 7.7M (7.7M)
8) Here Today - 0.8M (0.8M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Wrath of Man = 67% / 93%
Here Today = 49% / 96%

Theater count:
Wrath of Man = 2,875
Here Today = 1,200

CinemaScore ratings:
Wrath of Man = A-
Here Today = n/a

- SB

4/1/21

Hey all! Well, with the news of the major markets New York and Los Angeles finally opening their doors to moviegoers we really hoped to make the SMP happen this year... but thanks to Box Office Mojo joining forces with IMDbPro our website's automated box office calculations are no longer functional. Grrrrr. And without those weekly figures our site cannot process movie rankings for our Standings. At least, not at the moment. We have a crack team looking into this... but based on where things stand today we unfortunately just won't be able to properly run the SMP in 2021. And that's a real shame as interest among participants was growing in recent weeks, even with the expectation that streaming was going to cut into the box office grosses. Just look at this week's release of Godzilla vs. Kong, as even with it now available on HBOMax it's still projected to do $22M over the weekend for a domestic total of $35M in 5 days. And that's after an international gross of $123M last weekend. AMC theaters in LA are reporting sold out showings (largely due to their limited capacity rules), and I'm seeing the same here at my local AMC. Many folks are itching to go back to seeing movies at the theater, and distributors are doing their part to make the experience as safe as possible.

Since our last post we have seen Disney (again!) bump Black Widow back a couple months to July 9 AND announce day-and-date (Premium) streaming on Disney+. Same for Cruella on 5/28. Free Guy also jumped back a couple months to 8/13. But you know what? They're all still summer movies just waiting to be watched on the big screen. Minions 2, however, did bail on summer 2021 completely and is now planned for 2022. The 2021 summer schedule is admittedly a bit thin, but there are still expected hits in A Quiet Place Part II, F9: The Fast Saga, Top Gun: Maverick and Jungle Cruise. I know I'll be seeing all of them :)

While we won't be able to submit picks this summer, and we won't be tracking full automated standings on the site, we still plan to provide weekly updates on the Home Page just as we used to. I'm personally looking forward to getting back into the swing of things here, so stay tuned for the first posting of box office projections in early May. See you soon!

- SB

2/2/21

Hello everyone!! Taking a moment to check in and see how our friends have all been since we last spoke. 2020 will forever be one of the very worst years in our lifetimes. This pandemic has impacted each of us in different ways, and we hope that each person here has been able to effectively manage the crisis, is healthy, and is safe!

As we all are aware, the theater industry came to a grinding halt just prior to Summer 2020... but there became signs of life as certain markets opened back up starting in August. The theater chains that were able to survive the summer lockdowns devised plans to help protect their customer base, to then lure in moviegoers with re-releases of older hit films. The 10th anniversary of Inception in IMAX became the first big attempt re-introduce normalcy.

Personally speaking, I was excited for theaters to open back up. The concerns with going back into an indoor environment with other customers were very real, but my own mindset was that if my own city wasn't struggling, and AMC could both introduce and enforce rules for safety (including masks, social distancing, and limited ticket sales), AND I could sit away from the crowd in only large auditoriums, I would be fine. And if I didn't like what I was seeing... I was outta there. Here in northeast Florida AMC finally re-opened in late August, and I was there to see Inception in IMAX. And quite honsestly to my surprise... I was the ONLY person there for that showing. One seat filled smack in the center of a giant empty IMAX auditoroum. The theater itself was a ghost-town, and I couldn't tell if it was due to the pandemic or the fact that the movie was a re-release. Fast forward two more days and I'm seeing the longggg-delayed The New Mutants in a crowd of about 40 people. But just as AMC had designed, once you select your seat no one else can sit right next to you in any direction. Being masked up in my private bubble of empty seats, I felt more confident that this would work. Later that week... Tenet. The next night... Raiders of the Lost Ark (my #1 favorite movie of all time). Honest Thief. Wonder Woman. Die Hard (top-5 all time movie for me). Wonder Woman 1984. Monster Hunter. Alien.

The movies originally scheduled for Summer 2020 saw many different destinations, with streaming becoming the most controversial, particularly when it came to the decision of Premium Video On Demand (Mulan). Some studios cashed in quickly to ensure some kind of revenue (Greyhound), others held firm to a theatrical release no matter the financial consequences (Tenet), while others continue to resist the temptation of streaming to ensure future box office grosses (Black Widow). Distributors have not been thrilled (to say the least) with the decision-making of some studios, and an attempt to please most everyone was the strategy for WW84 opening 'day and date' with theatrical + HBO Max. Based on that "success" there is now a long-term plan for 2021 Warner Bros. movies to be released with the same rollout. Good for both HBO Max customers and moviegoers.

Below was our list of 2020 Summer movies and where they eventially wound up. Many of these are currently listed for Summer 2021, so we'll see how that shakes out.


Mulan (orig 3/9/20) -> 7/24/20 -> 8/21/20 -> Disney+ PVOD 9/4/20

Black Widow (5/1/20) -> 11/6/20 -> 5/7/21

Greyhound (5/8/20) -> 6/12/20 -> Apple TV+ 7/10/20

The Woman In the Window (5/15/20) -> Netflix 2021

Scoob! (5/15/20) - HBO Max 6/26/20

The Spongebob Movie: Sponge On the Run (5/22/20) -> 8/14/20 ($4.8M) + PVOD 2021

F9 (5/22/20) -> 4/2/21 -> 5/28/21

Wonder Woman 1984 (6/5/20) -> 10/2/20 -> 12/25/20 ($39.2M) + HBO Max

Soul (6/19/20) -> 11/20/20 -> Disney+ 12/25/20

Top Gun: Maverick (6/26/20) -> 12/23/20 -> 7/2/21

In the Heights (6/26/20) - 6/18/21 + HBO Max

Free Guy (7/3/20) -> 12/11/20 -> 5/21/21

Minions: The Rise of Gru (7/3/20) -> 7/2/21

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (7/10/20) -> 3/5/21 -> 6/11/21 -> 11/11/21

Tenet (7/17/20) -> 7/31/20 -> 8/12/20 -> 9/3/20 ($57.9M)

Jungle Cruise (7/24/20) -> 7/30/21

Morbius (7/10/20) -> 7/31/20 -> 3/19/21 -> 10/8/21 -> 1/21/22

Bill & Ted Face the Music (8/21/20) -> 8/14/20 -> 8/28/20 -> 9/1/20 -> 8/27/20 ($3.4M) + PVOD


With 2020 now behind us and vaccinations in effect, there is hope that we will have a Summer 2021 season. But we have a long way to go before it can be determined if there will be a SMP 2021. At this moment I count approx. 20 summer movies that are SMP-worthy... but it remains to be seen if they will hold their dates. We will let this play out a bit longer before making a decision, so keep your fingers crossed!

With so much sadness, anxiety and frustration all around us these days, we plan to do our best to make this movie site as enjoyable as possible as an escape from the madness :D

- SB