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2019 Summer Movie Pool

8/24/19

    

Summer is nearing its end, and this weekend we have 4 new movies to add to the bottom of the list. Ready Or Not got a head start with the Wednesday release, but I don't think anyone really noticed. That's a shame as it has a pretty solid Critics and Audience Score on RT. It should be noted that the feel-good film Overcomer received that rare A+ CinemaScore to go along with a 99% Audience Score on RT (Critics, however, only gave it 33%). And don't look now, but Shia is back.

But the interest here is the super tight race for first place among the tiebreaker candidates. Exciting!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Angel Has Fallen - 15M (15M)
2) Good Boys - 10M (40.7M)
3) The Lion King - 8.5M (510.9M)
4) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 8M (147.5M)
5) The Angry Birds Movie 2 - 6.5M (27.2M)
6) Overcomer - 6.3M (6.3M)
7) Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark - 6.2M (50.8M)
8) Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 5.8M (43.3M)
9) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 5.2M (123.7M)
10) Ready Or Not - 5.2M (7.6M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Angel Has Fallen = 40% / 94%
Overcomer = 33% / 99%
Ready Or Not = 87% / 82%
The Peanut Butter Falcon = 94% / 99%

Theater count:
Angel Has Fallen = 3,286
Overcomer = 1,723
Ready Or Not = 2,855
The Peanut Butter Falcon = 991

CinemaScore ratings:
Angel Has Fallen = A-
Overcomer = A+
Ready Or Not = B+
The Peanut Butter Falcon = n/a

- SB

8/20/19

The Berg family is sitting pretty in the #1 and #2 spot (Steve obviously #2) as the final few weeks of the movie pool slows down in the last few weeks. Angry Birds 2 really underperforming, as have most of the non-Disney fare this summer. Good Boys suprising with an opening of 21 million - I have no idea who the audience is for the movie, but it is bringing in a decent amount of cash, all things considered. I pray to the movie gods the first SMP trophy doesn't go to Steve. 2 weeks to go!

Boxoffice Mojos Weekend Actuals:
1) Good Boys - 21M (21M)
2) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 14.1M (133M)
3) The Lion King - 12M (496M)
4) Angry Birds 2 - 10M (16M)
5) Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark - 10M (40M)
6) Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 8M (33M)
7) 47 Meters Down 2 - 8M (8M)
8) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 7.6M (114.4M)

- MC

8/15/19

     

Three weekends remain, and it appears that our current Top 10 listing is locked in. But as the weekend numbers below show, there will still be some placement shuffling with both Hobbs & Shaw and Once Upon a Time making the monies. None of the 5 new releases are expected to pose a threat as they all are projected to top out at $15M. That sucks for the 2 who selected Good Boys and 1 who selected The Angry Birds Movie 2. The Critics and Audience all approve, but clearly not enough to make a dent.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Good Boys - 15.6M (15.6M)
2) The Angry Birds Movie 2 - 13.8M (21.6M)
3) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 13.7M (133M)
4) The Lion King - 11.9M (496.6M)
5) 47 Meters Down: Uncaged - 11.7M (11.7M)
6) Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark - 9.6M (38.8M)
7) Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 9M (34M)
8) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 7.4M (113.7M)
9) Blinded By the Light - 6M (6M)
10) Where'd You Go, Bernadette - 5.2M (5.2M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
The Angry Birds Movie 2 = 72% / 86%
Good Boys = 80% / 94%
47 Meters Down: Uncaged = 57% / n/a
Blinded By the Light = 90% / 93%
Where'd You Go, Bernadette = 46% / n/a

Theater count:
The Angry Birds Movie 2 = 3,869
Good Boys = 3,204
47 Meters Down: Uncaged = 2,850
Blinded By the Light = 2,307
Where'd You Go, Bernadette = 2,404

CinemaScore ratings:
The Angry Birds Movie 2 = B+
Good Boys = B+
47 Meters Down: Uncaged = C+
Blinded By the Light = A-
Where'd You Go, Bernadette = B

- SB

8/12/19

What a weekend of surprises! No, not the overperformance of Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark, or the underperformance of The Kitchen (The worst opening for a Melissa McCarthy film, even doing worse than the cringey Happytime Murders), But based on Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood's passing Rocketman this past weekend, it looks like the first time in movie pool history that Steve may beat me in the movie pool! Still a few weeks left to turn things around Dark Phoenix! It looks like the feild is narrowing down as there are no upcoming releases that will disrupt the top ten (unless Angry Birds 2 surprises).

Boxofficemojo's weekend results:
1) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 25.2M (108.3M)
2) Spooky Tales To Dictate at Dusk - 20M (20M)
3) The Lion King - 20.2M (473.3M)
4) Dora the Explora - 17.4M (17.4M)
5) Once Upon a Time... I Won the Moviepool - 11M (100.1M)
6) The Art of Racing In the Rain - 8.1M (8.1M)
7) The Kitchen - 5M (5M)
8) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 5.2M (370M)
9) Toy Story 4 - 4.5M (419M)
10) Bring the Soul: The Movie - 2.3M (4.5M)

- MC

8/9/19

     

It's mid-August, and here comes the late-summer crap. 5(!) new movies this weekend, and none were selected by any of our players. Of all the releases only Dora and the Lost City of Gold has real potential thanks to its excellent RT Critics and Audience scores. $22M won't cut it, however. Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark has an excellent Critics score as well, but its $15M is now going in the opposite direction. Chalk up another top weekend for Hobbs & Shaw, as both it and Once Upon a Time should cross $100M and enter Top 10 territory.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 29M (113.1M)
2) Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 22M (22M)
3) The Lion King - 20.8M (474M)
4) Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark - 15.9M (15.9M)
5) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 12.2M (101.1M)
6) The Kitchen - 8.5M (8.5M)
7) The Art of Racing In the Rain - 8M (8M)
8) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 5.1M (5.1M)
9) Toy Story 4 - 5M (420M)
10) Yesterday - 1.8M (71.3M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Dora and the Lost City of Gold = 81% / 87%
Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark = 81% / 70%
The Kitchen = 21% / 76%
The Art of Racing In the Rain = 47% / 82%
Brian Banks = 55% / 94%

Theater count:
Dora and the Lost City of Gold = 3,735
Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark = 3,135
The Kitchen = 2,745
The Art of Racing In the Rain = 2,765
Brian Banks = 1,240

CinemaScore ratings:
Dora and the Lost City of Gold = A
Scary Stories To Tell In the Dark = C
The Kitchen = B-
The Art of Racing In the Rain = A-
Brian Banks = n/a

- SB

8/4/19

 

The final month of summer is upon us - and it looks like we are going out with a bang with the mind-numbingly stupid Hobbes & Shaw rocketing to the number one spot this weekend with a 60.8M debut

Jason Statham looks to continue owning August releases with this latest in the suprisingly popular F & F series. I have yet to watch any of them - although I did watch The Last Witchhunter last night for the second time. Priorities!

The Lion King continued to line Disneys pockets with another 38.2M, setting up Disney to have 7 total releases this year to make over a Billion (thats billion with a "B") each, assuming that Frozen 2 and Star Wars: Beat a Dead Horse perform as expected. The house of mouse is really raking it in this year. Oh yeah, and in other news, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood limped its way to scrape up a paltry 20M this weekend. Time to hang it up, Tarantino!

Boxoffice Mojo Weekend Estimates:
1) Fast & Furious Presents: Calvin & Shaw - 60M (60M)
2) The Lion King - 38.2M (430.9M)
3) Its a Chopper, Baby - 20M (78M)
4) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 7.7M (360.4M)
5) Toy Story 4 - 7.1M (410M)

- MC

8/3/19

 

Thanks, everyone, for your patience as we worked through the server connectivity issues. Our buddy David was able to get everything fixed for Chapman and me. Much appreciated!!

I'm liking how Hollywood has rolled out just one major release at a time over the past several weeks, and not bombarded us just yet with the late-summer crap that we've been accustomed to (we'll get more than our share in the remainder of August). This weekend brings us the last of the biggies, as 51 players selected Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw. A starting weekend like that would make it a lock, and the early numbers look promising. That 90% RT Audience Score and A- CinemaScore shold eliminate any long-term concerns.

I'll also point out that this was the weekend where Fox was to release their R-rated thriller/horror The New Mutants, based on the X-Men spinoff comic. Unfortunately for the one player who picked it, the fallout of Disney's acquisition of Fox pushed it to April 2020. Considering that it was originally supposed to be released in April 2018, it's easy to see that Fox didn't quite know what to do with this collection of superheroes. But after the spectacular flop that was Dark Phoenix, it looks like the right call was made so that Disney could re-market it properly.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - 66M (66M)
2) The Lion King - 38.9M (428.9M)
3) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 21M (81M)
4) Toy Story 4 - 7.6M (410.4M)
5) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 7.5M (359.8M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw = 67% / 90%

Theater count:
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw = 4,253

CinemaScore ratings:
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw = A-

- SB

7/29/19

Current Top 10:

          

Someone has been slipping with the weekend recaps, so here's a quick glimpse at our current Top 10. Still an entire month to go.

- SB

7/25/19

 

Another one-movie weekend, and this one is my most anticipated of the summer. 17 players are pinning their hopes on Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, which is a hit with both critics and the audience. In a down summer like this, a $40M opening might be just enough to surpass Rocketman for the 10th spot on the list. That's of course assuming Hobbs & Shaw also hits. Pretty safe assumption.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Lion King - 90M (365.4M)
2) Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood - 40M (40M)
3) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 14M (346.9M)
4) Toy Story 4 - 11M (397.2M)
5) Crawl - 3.7M (31.1M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood = 88% / 84%

Theater count:
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood = 3,659

CinemaScore ratings:
Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood = B

- SB

7/18/19

 

It's a one-movie weekend, and it's gonna be huuuuuuge. The juggernaut that is Disney is throwing another blockbuster our way with the highly-anticiapted live-action/CGI remake of The Lion King. Selected by 58 of 59 players (big oops for someone) with an average Top 10 placement of 2.2, its $185M projection puts it in line to become the fourth $300M+ hit of the summer (after Disney's own Aladdin, Disney's own Toy Story 4, and Disney's own Spider-Man: Far From Home). Just ridiculous. The critics aren't big fans of this remake, but the audience is eating it up. Sounds just like the previous live-action remake this summer. Cha-ching!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Lion King - 185M (185M)
2) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 21.3M (319.3M)
3) Toy Story 4 - 12.9M (372.4M)
4) Crawl - 5.6M (23.1M)
5) Yesterday - 4.7M (57M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
The Lion King = 56% / 93%

Theater count:
The Lion King = 4,725

CinemaScore ratings:
The Lion King = A

- SB

7/16/19

Another sleepy weekend at the box office as Stuber and Crawl didnt break the stranglehold that Spider Man 2(v3) and Toy Story 4 have at the box office. Everyone is holding out for the release of the Live Action version of the Lion King, due out next weekend. Not much else to say about this weekends picks and they mirrored estimates that came out on Friday, with crawl just passing over Stuber for the #3 spot for the weekend - maybe we will see some more exciting analysis next weekend.

Boxoffice mojos weekend actuals:
1) Eurotrip Spider-Man - 45.3M (274M)
2) Toy Story 4 - 20.9M (346M)
3) Crawl - 12M (12M)
4) Stuber - 8.2M (8.2M)
5) Yesterday - 6.7M (48.2M)
6) Aladdin - 6.1M (331M)
7) Annabelle Comes Home - 5.6M (60M)
8) Midsommar - 3.6M (18.5M)
9) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 3.2M (147.2M)
10) Men In Black International - 2.2M (76M)

- MC

7/13/19

  

Chapman was sleeping at the wheel on the prior weekend recap, but I'm here for the (mid-weekend) preview. Yeesh it's late already. 2 new releases, and wisely no one picked either of them. Both Stuber and Crawl are projected in the $10M-12M range, and audiences seem to enjoy them both. The real surprise is that 89% RT rating from the critics for Crawl. Wow, did NOT see that one coming. Hang on, Sam Raimi is involved in this? Someone here needs to go see it and tell us how it is.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 48.4M (278.4M)
2) Toy Story 4 - 21.8M (346.7M)
3) Stuber - 11.9M (11.9M)
4) Crawl - 10.5M (10.5M)
5) Yesterday - 6.8M (48.3M)
6) Aladdin - 5.4M (330.6M)
7) Annabelle Comes Home - 5.3M (60.2M)
8) Midsommar - 3.4M (18M)
9) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 3.3M (18M)
10) Men In Black International - 2.1M (76.3M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Stuber = 47% / 82%
Crawl = 89% / 76%

Theater count:
Stuber = 4,634
Crawl = 2,707

CinemaScore ratings:
Stuber = B
Crawl = B

- SB

7/4/19

  

It's an early holiday week, so we get an early holiday review! We've now hit the halfway point of the summer and the Current Standings is starting to take proper shape, as only 4 "major" releases remain that were selected by 10+ players. If you know me well enough you'd know that Spider-Man is my favorite comic book hero everrrrr (just barely edging out Batman), so he's going to get extra attention in this weekend preview :D

Spider-Man: Far From Home (selected by all 59 players) got a big jump on the holiday by going fully-wide on Tuesday. That day alone brought in $39M, making it the largest Tuesday debut of all time (surpassing 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man at $35M). Of course the latter finished with (only) $262M, while this new one is projected to reach $200M in just 6 days. And this is why studios keep cranking out reboots, kids. The critics and the audience all love the newest Spidey, despite no CinemaScore announcement yet. Odd.

This newest one rates incredibly well when stacked up against the prior releases. I enjoy them all in varying degrees, but much of Spidey 3 is really tough to stomach today, kinda like trying to re-watch The Phantom Menace. Pretty cringe-worthy. Thanks for ruining a good thing, Sony execs :| I enjoyed both Amazing Spideys more than 3, and that includes the sloppy and unfortunately over-casted Amaze Spidey 2. Spidey 2 and Spider-Verse are definitely my favorites. Actually surprised to see that the audience disliked the first Spidey so much. Or maybe that's just RT's fuzzy math.

RT scores (critics / audience):

Spidey 1 (2002) - 90 / 67
Spidey 2 (2004) - 93 / 82
Spidey 3 (2007) - 63 / 51
Amaze Spidey 1 (2012) - 72 / 77
Amaze Spidey 2 (2014) - 52 / 64
New Spidey 1 (2017) - 92 / 88
Spider-Verse (2018) 97 / 93
New Spidey 2 (2019) - 92 / 97

We've also got some horror counter-programming this week. Midsommar (originally scheduled for 8/9 and selected by 1 player) got RT critic love, but that dreadful C+ CinemaScore will cripple any long-term box office success. Probably could have used some Spidey to liven it up.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this holiday week/weekend:
1) Spider-Man: Far From Home - 97.4M (200M)
2) Toy Story 4 - 30M (293.3M)
3) Yesterday - 10.7M (35.1M)
4) Annabelle Comes Home - 10.6M (49.4M)
5) Aladdin - 6.2M (316.4M)
6) Midsommar - 4.9M (8.5M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Spider-Man: Far From Home = 92% / 97%
Midsommar = 80% / 72%

Theater count:
Spider-Man: Far From Home = 4,634
Midsommar = 2,707

CinemaScore ratings:
Spider-Man: Far From Home = A
Midsommar = C+

Everyone have a great (and safe) July 4th holiday!! I'm seeing Spidey today :)

- SB

6/28/19

Really scraping the bottom of the barrel for content this week; Toy Story unsuprisingly led the weekend despite a 50% drop in its second week. That falls faster than the 46% declines of Toy Story 3 and Finding Dory, but still is better than the 56% decline of Incredibles 2. Annabelle did about as well as predictions estimated, and Yesterday overperformed making 17 million, whereas the highest prediction coming into the weekend was 15 million. Last year had Jurrasssic World at 60M in its second weekend, so comparably we are looking at an underperforming summer to the tune of 9.5%. We will see how much Lion King and Spidey bring in this summer, and Frozen 2 and Star Wars later this year.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Toy Story 4 - 59M (238M)
2) Annabelle Comes Home - 20M (31M)
3) Yesterday - 17M (17M)
4) Allladin - 10M (306M)
5) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 7M (131)
6) Men In Black International - 6M (65M)
8) Child's Play - 4M (23M)
9) Rocketman - 3M (84M)
7) Avengers: Endgame - 6M (841M)
10) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 3M (161M)

- MC

6/28/19

  

Our newest horror flick, Annabelle Comes Home (selected by 2 players) got a $10M head start on the weekend, and with a 70% average RT rating perhaps it could scare up some long-term cash. Ehhhhh but that B- CinemaScore says it won't have legs. Oh well. Yesterday (3 players), on the other hand, has a 90% RT audience score. Shame that it's only projected to open with $10M. Shoot, Annabelle made that in its first 2 days!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Toy Story 4 - 60.8M (243.8M)
2) Annabelle Comes Home - 27M (43.7M)
3) Yesterday - 10M (10M)
4) Aladdin - 9.2M (305.8M)
5) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 7.6M (132.1M)
6) Men In Black International - 5.5M (63.7M)
7) Child's Play - 5.2M (25M)
8) Rocketman - 3.5M (84M)
9) Avengers: Endgame - 2.9M (838.6M)
10) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 2.7M (160.9M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Annabelle Comes Home = 69% / 72%
Yesterday = 60% / 92%

Theater count:
Annabelle Comes Home = 3,613
Yesterday = 2,603br>

CinemaScore ratings:
Annabelle Comes Home = B-
Yesterday = A-

- SB

6/24/19

With the performance of Toy Story 4, the summer slump is officially over...or is it?
Although it had the best opening in franchise history with 118M over the weekend, it was below the conservative studio's early estimate of 140M. Still, it is the 4th largest opening for an animated film, so don't start crying for ol' Buzz and Woody yet. It has a lot of space between now and mid July when Lion King opens, which has a much higher buzz around the family folk in the office.

I am not sure if SpiderMan, Lion King or Toy Story 4 will hold the top spot by the end of the summer, but I am holding out that Child's Play pulls out a come from behind victory despite it's estimated 14M opening. Unfortunately, the other spooky doll film Annabelle Scared Stupid opens next week so don't hold your breath.

Men In Black: International - what else can we say about this failed reboot? Well, the 64% drop in its second weekend tells us that there won't be a sequel anytime soon. Interestingly, there apparently was a 21 Jump Street/MIB mashup in the mind of Jonah Hill as discovered in the Sony leaks a few years back. A pretty good postmortem is available on Midnight's Edge youtube channel. Check it out since I am too lazy to figure out how to add hyperlinks in HTML.

Remember Dark Phoenix? I sure do! It quietly exited 44% of it's theatres (1667) in the third week of release. Jeez!

Boxoffice report weekend actuals:
1) Toy Story 4 - 120M (120M)
2) Child's Play - 14M (14M)
3) Alladin - 13.2M (288M)
4) MIB:International - 10.7M (52.6M)
5) Secret Lives of Pets 2 - 10.2M (117.5M)
6) Rocketman - 5.6M (77.2M)
7) John Wick: Still Kickin' Ass - 4M (156M)
8) Godzilla - 3.8M (102M)

- MC

6/21/19

   

Who doesn't love the Toy Story franchise? The critics love it. The audience really loves it. I believe we all love it (a unanimous selection)... except for Chapman who has yet to see any of them. Weird. This one is easy money. Cha-ching!! The audience appears to also like Child's Play (selected by 3 players) and Anna. Unfortunately neither is expected to top $18M this weekend. Oops.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Toy Story 4 - 149M (149M)
2) Child's Play - 18M (18M)
3) Men In Black International - 12.1M (53.5M)
4) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 11.3M (116.2M)
5) Aladdin - 10.4M (284.8M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Toy Story 4 = 98% / 96%
Child's Play = 67% / 72%
Anna = 38% / 84%

Theater count:
Toy Story 4 = 4,575
Child's Play = 3,007
Anna = 2,114

CinemaScore ratings:
Toy Story 4 = A
Child's Play = C+
Anna = B+

- SB

6/17/19

Another weekend, another dissapointment; this time thanks to the underperformance of Men In Black: Intnernational. Apparently, audiences were unimpressed with the cast of Ragnarok in the roles made famous by Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones. One of the few cases where DC actors pummel Marvel actors. As predidicted, this was the lowest grossing Men In Black film in franchise history. The other film making its weekend debut Shaft also stunk it up over the weekend with about 8.3M - coming in at number 5 for the weekend. Unlike MIB, this recieved a pretty good audience response with a Cinemascore of "A". Too little too late at this point. My Dark Horse Dark Phoenix did not rise from the ashes to help keep me in the running by dropping 72.6% week over week.

Boxoffice report weekend actuals:
1) MIB: Fat Thor - 30M (30M)
2) Secret Lives of Pets 2 - 24.4M (92.6M)
3) Alladin - 17.3M (264M)
4) Rocketman - 9.4M (66.7M)
5) Dark Phoenix - 9.3M (52.1M)
6) Shaft - 8.9M (8.9M)
7) Go Go Godzilla - 8.7M (94.3M)
8) Everyone Loves Keanu - 6.4M (148.9M)

- MC

6/13/19

  

While the box office is currently at the second largest of all time this season (They counted Avengers Engame as part of the "season"), it sure seems to be sucking pretty hard this year with another weak weekend release schedule Men In Black: International (selected by 40 players) keeps revising its estimates - currently predicted to open under 30M - all three previous installments opened at between 51-54M, so this is a pretty sad reboot. Too bad, I liked the lead actors chemistry together in Space Thor a few years back. Shaft (1 player), isn't going to break any records either, with a Box Office Mojo prediction at around 14M opening, compared to the 21M opening of the "Original remake" from 19 years ago. Damn, I thought Sam Jackson was old then....

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) MIB: Fat Thor - 28M (28M)
2) Secret Lives of Pets 2 - 25.8M (92.3M)
3) Shaft - 20M (20M)
4) Dark Phoenix - 13M (55.7M)
5) Rocketman - 9.3M (66.7M)
6) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 8M (93M)
7) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 4.4M (146M)
8) Avengers: Endgame - 3.6M (830M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
MIB:Int = 26% / 71%
Shaft = 36% / 93%

Theater count:
MIB4 = 4,224
Shaft = 2,952


NEXT WEEK - Berg quits sucking and gets back to weekend previews! Also, Toy Story 4 sitting at 100% RT score with 78 reviews - Will it hold up?- MC

6/8/19

  

The critics aren't kind this weekend, as both new Wide releases got hammered. While The Secret Life of Pets 2 (selected by 52 players) has just a 53% RT rating, the audience loves it with both a 93% rating and an A- CinemaScore. That will certainly help keep the money rolling in. Dark Phoenix (43 players), on the other hand, only has a 22% RT rating (ouch!). An audience score of just 65% along with a terrible B- CinemaScore will kill any long-term growth. It better open huge bc it's going to be a fast crash.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 62M (62M)
2) Dark Phoenix - 49.9M (49.9M)
3) Aladdin - 22.2M (227.7M)
4) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 19M (81.1M)
5) Rocketman - 14.6M (51M)
6) Ma - 8M (33.2M)
7) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 6.4M (137.2M)
8) Avengers: Endgame - 4.7M (824M)
9) Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 4.1M (138.2M)
10) Booksmart - 2.2M (18.5M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
The Secret Life of Pets 2 = 53% / 93%
Dark Phoenix = 22% / 65%

Theater count:
The Secret Life of Pets 2 = 4,561
Dark Phoenix = 3,721

CinemaScore ratings:
The Secret Life of Pets 2 = A-
Dark Phoenix = B-

- SB

6/4/19

Current Top 10:

          

Chapman isn't feeling too hot post-trip, so I've got this covered. Ok, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is now a concern as it earned about $10M less than projected. $46M isn't an awful opening, but those who picked it better hope it can hold off the upcoming competition that's fighting for the same demographic. The $19M Friday number seemed promising, but performance declined day-to-day due to the lack of a female audience (tracking showed 67% male). I'd say that Rocketman provided the counterprogramming that caused the female audience to go in another direction, but it too underperformed by about $10M. At just $25M we might be able to already cross it off.

Next weekend: heavy selections in both Dark Phoenix (43 players) and The Secret Life of Pets 2 (52 players). At least Pets 2 already has critic reviews. Phoenix, on the other hand, has not yet had its embargo lifted. Not a good thing.

- SB

5/31/19

   

Berg is back!! Ok, Oahu is just an amazing place to be! The entire island is gorgeous, has great hiking, excellent snorkeling, and there are no private beaches. Everything is public access. I nearly never returned :D But since I'm here and now it's Champan's turn to be out of the country... it's time for a proper weekend preview.

3 movies go Wide this weekend, and 47 players are counting on box office destruction for Godzilla: King of the Monsters. Godzilla! Mothra! Rodan! Ghidorah! The 2014 original opened to $93M, but kinda flamed out quickly totaling just $200M. This one is projected for a far less opening at $56M, and its B+ Cinemascore matches its predecessor's score. Oh, and the critics really don't like this sequel. Not good. At least the audience loves it. I just saw it this evening and I really enjoyed the mega-action. Duhhhhh. But less people talky. More monster smashy! For the record, I do prefer its predecessor for its slow build and then climactic battle. It's crazy that while I never was a Godzilla fan growing up (1998's version did not help this at all), I am fully locked into Legendary's Monsterverse.

Rocketman (selected by 14 players) has fantastic reviews and an even better Cinemascore at A-. A $35M opening might seem too low to compete, but it very well could have legs just like Bohemian Rhapsody last year (a ridiculous 4x the opening weekend). Watch out.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 56M (56M)
2) Aladdin - 40M (181M)
3) Rocketman - 35M (35M)
4) Ma - 19.9M (19.9M)
5) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 12.5M (127.4M)
6) Avengers: Endgame - 9.5M (817.4M)
7) Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 7.7M (131.6M)
8) Booksmart - 3.9M (14.7M)
9) Brightburn - 2.8M (14.2M)
10) A Dog's Journey - 2M (19.7M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Godzilla: King of the Monsters = 40% / 89%
Rocketman = 90% / 89%
Ma = 61% / 68%

Theater count:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters = 4,108
Rocketman = 3,610
Ma = 2,808

CinemaScore ratings:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters = B+
Rocketman = A-
Ma = B-

- SB

5/27/19

I hope everyone is enjoying the Memorial Day weekend as much as Will Smith must be. After all the jokes about how bad his Aladdin 3D character was, it didnt seem to matter to the moviegoing public as it exceeded expectations and delivered an estimated 90M weekend debut. Just when you think his star is falling, he keeps churning out average films to box office gold. I haven't seen it, so maybe it is a little rash to dismiss this film. I picked it, so I hope it does well! I also would have hoped that Brightburn did well, although it dissapointed on its opening weekend, due in part to its abysmal C+ Cinemascore. Booksmart made a blip with an estimated 6.5M. All that book learnin' never helped nobody!

Summer Movie Pool Current Top 10

1) Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 120M
2) Aladdin - 112M
3) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 107M
4) The Intruder - 32M
5) The Hustle - 30M
6) Long Shot - 29M
7) Uglydolls - 18M
8) A Dog's Journey - 16M
9) Poms - 12M
10) Brightburn - 9.5M

- MC

5/23/19

    

5 movies go Wide this weekend, with 54 players counting on Aladdin to bring back Will Smith the the summer audience. Funny thing about Will Smith; he hasnt had a movie break 70% on Rotten Tomatoes in over 20 years - and he isn't going to get it with Aladdin, with a Rotten Tomatoes score sitting at 60%. His last move that cracked 70% (it was 71% - Enemy of the State in 1998). He has had 20 chances since then, five of which sit at 25% or less.

A new James Gunn feature Brightburn(well, his writing) sits in the number two spot going into theatres this weekend. The reviews sit slightly higher at 63%. I like the premise but I dont know if it is worthy of a top ten spot. Haven't heard any buzz about it. Booksmart ads are dominating my Reddit feed, and Rotten Tomatoes has another "Get Out" moment with an aggrigated score of 99%. RT has recently updated their scoring to only use audience scores that have been confirmed to have a ticket. At this point, I think they need to update their scoring to avoid features like this getting better ratings than Empire Strikes Back. I mean comeon people!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:

1) Aladdin - 75.7M (75.7M)
2) John Wick 3 - 29.7M (106.4M)
3) Avengers - 22.4M (803M)
4) Pokemon - 18M (121M)
5) Booksmart - 10.3M (10.3M)
6) Brightburn - 9M (9M)
7) A Dogs Journey - 6.2M (16.6M)
8) The Hustle - 4.4M (30.4M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Aladdin = 60%
Brightburn = 63%
Booksmart = 99%
Funny Story = 90%
Diamantino = 87%

Theater count:
Aladdin = Lots
Brightburn = 2,607
Booksmart = 2,505

- MC

5/20/19

   

While Stevie is away in Hawaii, you are all in luck for another adventure-filled write up by the Chapster!
It was a great opening weekend for John Wick 3 which smashed previous entries in the series. The opening weekend for each film:

John Wick 1- 14.4M
John Wick 2 - 30.4M
John Wick 3 - 56.8 M

If you look at the final haul for each film, it gets a little more interesting.

John Wick 1- 43M
John Wick 2 - 92M
John Wick 3 - ?

There are 21 players in this years pool who have to be pretty happy with this opening weekend performance. There shouldnt be a huge dent in audence attendance to JW3 next week with Aladdin, Booksmart and Brightburn in the wait, although Brightburn might have the same audience. I actually saw it this past weekend, and it was probably the best entry into the series, without really changing the formula too much. Basically, it is like watching someone play a video game. I dont feel the urge to see it again, but there are some fantastic creative fight scenes. Two thumbs up!

Box Office Weekend Actuals:

1) John Wick 3 - 56.8M
2) Avengers - 29M (771M)
3) Pokemon - 25.8M (94M)
4) A Dog's Journey - 8M
5) The Hustle - 6.1M (23.5M)
6) The Intruder - 4.0M (28M)

5/14/19

Who's ready for a little analysis of our 2019 Summer Movie Pool picks??

27 different movies were selected (3 more than last year), and amazingly none of them were Limited-release. We did just have a movie (Artemis Fowl) shift out of this year and into summer 2020... and completely handcuff one of our players. Awwwww I've been there. It sucks. And zero chance at the Bonehead Award too since it must earn at least $1 this summer.

Before the summer started I counted 12 legit contenders for Top 10 status, but as we learned a few years back (Straight Outta Compton anyone?) anything can happen. And remember, nobody really knows anything :D


Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each 'major' movie (10+ selections this year):

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - May 10
47 people / Avg placement = 6.1 / Highest placement = 2
A heavy favorite for making the list, as the product is a worldwide phenomenon. It does feel like a 2019 movie is a bit late in the game, but hearing Ryan Reynold's voice as Pikachu was all I needed to be sold on it.

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - May 17
21 people / Avg placement = 8.0 / Highest placement = 3
I'll admit, the trailer for this third film looks better than all of the second film. I'm in. But not enough to actually select it. $43M and $92M for the predecessors don't exactly inspire confidence in the third's success, even if this one is its first summer release. And then there is that whole 'rule of 50%' thing for sequels.

Aladdin - May 24
54 people / Avg placement = 6.1 / Highest placement = 2
I'm really surprised this wasn't a unanimous selection, as it appeared to be a super-lock. Surely this will fare better than Disney's last live-action flick, Christopher Robin, right?

Godzilla: King of the Monsters - May 31
47 people / Avg placement = 6.8 / Highest placement = 2
I don't care what people think, Godzilla was one of the best movies of 2014, and I have a feeling I'll enjoy this one even more. Another heavy favorite, with multiple players even having it as high as #2. Bold. Very bold.

Rocketman - May 31
14 people / Avg placement = 8.2 / Highest placement = 6
This movie will inevitably be compared to Bohemian Rhapsody, which played more as a "greatest hits" documentary. Rocketman is being described more as a fantasy musical, not a biopic. Sounds groovy, and 14 players are on board.

Dark Phoenix - June 7
43 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 2
And another heavy favorite, but moreso toward the bottom of the list. Now that Disney has gobbled up Fox is there still interest in a fading franchise that is already being considered for a Marvel reboot? I personally didn't pick it, but I'll still go see it.

The Secret Life of Pets 2 - June 7
52 people / Avg placement = 5.2 / Highest placement = 1
The 2016 original came absolutely out of nowhere to earn $368M. As the first major animated film of the summer you can bet it will finish in the top half of the list. Lockety-lock-lock.

Men In Black: International - June 14
42 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 3
This movie seemed like an easy selection, but I don't know if I ever laughed once when watching the trailers. A new cast in a new locale sounds so... dull. Over half the pool believes, however.

Toy Story 4 - June 21
59 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
The first unanimous selection as a total no-brainer. Congrats everyone. I never expected TS3 to earn more than $400M back in 2010, so who knows how high this one will go. And this one has Key and Peele!

Spider-Man: Far From Home - July 5
59 people / Avg placement = 3.0 / Highest placement = 1
The other unanimous selection. Everyone loves Marvel. Everyone wants to see the first story after Endgame. Everyone loves Spider-Man. Spider-Man loves July 4th weekend ($334M in 2017). Too easy.

The Lion King - July 14
58 people / Avg placement = 2.2 / Highest placement = 1
NOT a unanimous selection. Wow someone really missed out. It's almost unfair that Disney has FOUR tentpole films in one summer. Could it be one too many? Boy, I hope not.

Once Upon a Time In Hollywood - July 26
17 people / Avg placement = 8.4 / Highest placement = 6
The ballsy pick of the summer. And my dad and I both selected it. Berg rules!!! Ok, I know Tarantino movies don't exactly make bank, but both recent flicks Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained did cross $120M. This one reunites Leonardo DiCaprio and Margot Robbie. Ummm what else I got?? It has the late Luke Perry, yeah, so go see it for him. And did I mention Margot Robbie?

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw - August 2
51 people / Avg placement = 6.6 / Highest placement = 2
Don't be scared of that August date, as it has 5 weekends to make $$$. The majority are definitely not scared, as this dumb action spinoff's got The Rock and his best bro from the F&F series, Mr. Meg. Sorry Vin, Rock says you're not invited in on the fun.


Whew that was a lot. Ok I may not have picked all of them, but these are the movies I REALLY want to see the most in theaters: John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Brightburn, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Rocketman, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw.

I hope everyone enjoys this summer as much as I will. Now it's my dad who has nearly perfectly identical picks as me. Ugh. I'm doomed :(

- SB

5/9/19

    

4 movies go Wide this weekend, with 47 players banking on Pokemon: Detective Pikachu to become the first hit of the summer. Projections are in the mid-50's, which would be a fine start with several months ahead of it. Reviews have not been kind to any of the other releases, particularly The Hustle, which has 1 player listing it as their #3 film. Good luck!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
2) Pokemon: Detective Pikachu - 56M (56M)
3) The Hustle - 15M (15M)
4) Poms - 8.4M (8.4M)
5) Long Shot - 6.6M (20M)
6) The Intruder - 6M (20M)
7) Tolkien - 5.5M (5.5M)
8) Uglydolls - 4.2M (14.7M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu = 66% / n/a
The Hustle = 16% / n/a
Poms = 26% / n/a
Tolkien = 47% / n/a

Theater count:
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu = 4,202
The Hustle = 3,007
Poms = 2,750
Tolkien = 1,495

CinemaScore ratings:
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu = A-
The Hustle = B-
Poms = B+
Tolkien = n/a

- SB

5/5/19

Current Top 10:

    

It's only our first weekend of the summer, and it looks like 7 players have had their dreams crushed already. The Intruder ($11M), Long Shot ($10M), and Uglydolls ($8.5M) all performed about as expected against the juggernaut second weekend of Endgame ($145M). All look like future additions to the Hall of Boneheads :)

While it wasn't a summer movie, it will still be fun to track Endgame's progress against the All-Time Domestic Gross list. After just 10 days Endgame has pulled in $619M. Sitting at #1? Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $936M. But this time next week I'd expected it to already be at #2 or #3. Crazy.

- SB

5/5/19

19 players with no selections were removed from this year's SMP, leaving us with 59 completed entries in 2019. A great turnout despite the slight dip from the last couple years (it had to stop peaking at some point). Only improves our chances at winning! :D Payments have been identified, so if you're still listed on the site you've made the cut.

All Limited-release movies were removed, as for the first time in well, ever, no participant selected one. Wow, folks are getting wiser here ;) All Wide releases remained so that they don't have to be re-added manually once they make bank ($1M is our standard cutoff). The 2019 Original Picks can now be viewed in Excel format in the Weekly Spreadsheets page. Enjoy!

- SB

5/3/19

   

Looks like the first weekend's movies are all going to get swallowed up by a second helping of Avengers: Endgame (projected at an additional $152M). Mmmmmmm yum. At least both critics and audiences enjoy Long Shot. The other two? Not so much.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
2) Uglydolls - 11M (11M)
3) The Intruder - 10.8M (10.8M)
4) Long Shot - 10M (10M)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings (Critics / Audience Score):
Uglydolls = 27% / n/a
The Intruder = 28% / 20%
Long Shot = 83% / 82%

Theater count:
Uglydolls = 3,652
The Intruder = 2,222
Long Shot = 3,230

CinemaScore ratings:
Uglydolls = B+
The Intruder = B-
Long Shot = B

- SB

5/3/19

Game on!! Registration is now closed, and the Startup Links including the Make Picks page have been disabled and removed. There are presently 78 listings in the Scoreboard, but 19 of those are 2018 players who did not return this year. Those players will be removed soon to clean up the list. Limited release movies that were not selected will also be removed from the Standings to help tidy things up.

Best of luck to those who selected movies this weekend. They are not Avengers: Endgame, so their box office will certainly be lacking.

- SB

5/1/19

Less than 2 days remain! And we've upped the ante in 2019 with a couple bonus prizes for our big winners. Thanks to our good buddy Chapman we introduce: the Idol (goes to our First Place winner), and the Bonehead (goes to our... Bonehead winner). Something to cherish forever!!

  

- SB

4/27/19

Hope everyone is as excited for the start of the SMP as we are! 28 entries are in at this time, and as always there will be a flood of them in the final week. Reminder that the deadline for submitting your picks will be Thursday 5/2 at 11:59pm PST, with payments due on Friday 5/3. No payment means entry removal, so be sure to get that in as well.

Just like last year, a mega-ultra-blockbuster has been released in the final week of April. And as per our rules Avengers: Endgame is NOT a selectable film (April movies do not count in the SMP). What resulted is the elimination of a movie that EVERYONE would have picked, thus creating a more challenging pool. And isn't that more fun??

 

See you all soon!

- SB

4/1/19

You've been anxiously waiting for this moment, and SMP XXII (the standard for movie pools) is finally here!! The site is ready and rockin' for a new year of excitement... and misery. Game on!!!

2018 RECAP

After Hollywood's major letdown in 2017 ($3.7B - the worst summer in 11 years), 2018 rebounded nicely with $4.4B - the fifth biggest summer box office ever. And to think that if Avengers: Infinity War had released in May as originally scheduled, the summer would have threatened the all-time record of $4.75B. Disney was again the big winner with $1.5B from their four movies. Our Top 10 spanned movies from all four months, with June as the big winner thanks to The Incredibles 2 ($598M) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($413M). May's highlight was Deadpool 2 ($318M), and the July winner was Ant-Man and the Wasp ($212M). This summer the mega-surprise was August's The Meg ($112M). Only 14 people trusted it, and two players specifically benefitted from its success. Even more surprising was that it was released in the SECOND weekend of August. Ballsy selections.

As everyone here knows, the white whale of the Summer Movie Pool is the "Perfect 10". Of the 608 entries submitted over the prior 20 years we'd seen a total of just three Perfect 10s, two of which came in the same summer (sorry Kate). And of those three entries, their Deviation Scores were 14, 24, and 18. Even with 10 correct picks deviation can still come into play. With Year #21 wrapped up we've now had a total of 676 entries submitted, and amazingly we have another Perfect 10 tie. Whoa. So again we need to look at Deviation... but this isn't going to bode well for anyone not named Kelly Perone. In the most incredible performance we've ever seen in the SMP, Kelly had a PERFECT DEVIATION to go along with her Perfect 10. That's right, a Deviation Score of 0. ZERO. Incredible!! Back in 2011 Kelly became just our second member to win the SMP in their very first year, and now she sets the standard for perfection. The $500.00 First Place prize is deservedly hers. Congrats!

With all this talk of perfection let's not forget that Jen Ballard also scored a Perfect 10 this summer, and the rest of us didn't. Jen also had a Deviation Score of 12, which in either other 10-for-10 summer would have won. Sadly just not this year. To be able to look at both Disney's Christopher Robin and Skyscraper and say, no I don't think so, and then look at both Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! and The Meg and say, yep they're definitely the ones... well major kudos to you as well for being smarter than us! Congrats on winning $100.00 for Second Place.

Third Place was a battle among those with 9 correct picks. 19 players to be exact. Thankfully we have a Scoreboard page that auto-calculates so we don't have to figure it all out ourselves. And lookie here... another tie. Dennis Berg's pursuit of his first SMP championship was well documented this summer, and it was his lack of faith in his very favorite actor in the world that did him in (the term "actor" used loosely). Kate Choomack, however, wouldn't let him have it all to himself, as her top selections were jaw-dropping. They get to split the $30.00 Third Place prize.

And then we have our Bonehead Award. It was a tight race this summer as both Ed Acayan and Ted Venable made highly questionable selections within the first two weeks of the pool. Not quite sure of their motivation, but unfortunately for Ted The Guardians (no, not THAT Guardians) continued to earn $$$ throughout the entire summer. A whole $174K to be specific. The big winner (loser) was Ed with his pick of Revenge that earned a whopping $102K. Enjoy your $10.00 prize.

2019 RULES

The rules of the game are simple:

1) Go to www.summermoviepool.com
2) Select your Top Ten list of summer movies
3) Rank them in the order that you believe they will finish

The pool runs from May 1 to Aug 31, so the only eligible movies are those that release within that date range. Your picks AND entry fee must be submitted before the site locks for the summer.

The Rules page of this site covers everything in detail.

Feel free to invite whomever you like... as long as they also pay on time. Be sure to send them this email so that they are able to sign up follow the payment instructions.

The cutoff for entries is the first Friday of May, so the time to confirm entries and track payments will be limited. As such, the deadline for submitting your picks will be the first Thursday of May at 11:59pm PST. At that point the site will lock and no further entries will be accepted. The entire month of April is more than enough time to assemble your picks and submit them.

Have your picks submitted by May 2nd!!!


On May 3rd all picks will be revealed on the Current Standings page.

Any questions? E-mail us at summermoviepool@gmail.com.

Good luck!!!

- SB

3/31/19

Final prep of the SMP website is underway, and we're close to the start of the 2019 Summer Movie Pool! Now is the perfect time to research this summer's movies and start building your lists. The email invite to last year's participants will go out soon, but all are welcome to join once we go live.

For now, feel free to check out the Previous Years, Official Posters, Photo Gallery, and Hall of Boneheads links to reminisce. Stay tuned!

- SB