It’s the third weekend of the summer, and that’s a perfect time for some quick analysis and commentary of our 2025 Summer Movie Pool picks.
After a couple years of upticks in the number of movies selected, including a near-record 31 in 2024, this year’s field took fewer chances as we only have 20 total. No movies have shifted entirely out of the summer timeframe (so far), so everything selected is currently in play.
While making my own picks I personally counted 9 legit options for Top 10 status, plus another 7 for that #10 spot. But of course, we’ve seen time and time again that anything can happen. In fact, over the duration of the SMP we’ve had 13 movies make Top 10 that weren’t selected at all (most recently 2023’s Sound of Freedom which finished #6 at $181M). As I love to say to those who’ll listen, nobody really knows anything when it comes to the summer box office.
Below are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie (10+ selections this year). The majority of picks gravitated around the same collection of movies, so placement will most certainly be critical.
This summer’s tracking:
- 12 movies selected by 10+ players (12 in 2024).
- 6 different movies selected at #1 (4 in 2024).
- 4 movies selected unanimously (1 in 2024).
- 2 different weekends have multiple ‘major’ movies selected (2 in 2024).
- Once again we have no ‘major’ selections in the month of August.
| # Picks | Avg. Placement | Highest Pick | ||
| 5/2 | Thunderbolts* | 40 | 5.6 | #1 |
| 5/23 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | 43 | 5.2 | #2 |
| 5/23 | Lilo & Stitch | 42 | 3.0 | #1 |
| 5/30 | Karate Kid: Legends | 17 | 8.5 | #5 |
| 6/6 | From the World of John Wick: Ballerina | 25 | 8.5 | #4 |
| 6/13 | How to Train Your Dragon | 42 | 5.1 | #1 |
| 6/20 | Elio | 32 | 7.6 | #3 |
| 6/20 | 28 Years Later | 17 | 8.6 | #6 |
| 6/27 | F1: The Movie | 17 | 8.4 | #5 |
| 7/2 | Jurassic World: Rebirth | 43 | 2.1 | #1 |
| 7/11 | Superman | 43 | 3.1 | #1 |
| 7/25 | The Fantastic Four: First Steps | 43 | 5.0 | #1 |
Thunderbolts* (5/2)
After a year off, Marvel is back to owning the opening weekend of the summer. 3 players must not have gotten the memo, however, and will miss out on all the fun of what appears to be Marvel’s answer to DC’s (also fun) Suicide Squad. 1 player even has it as their #1 overall. No MCU movie has ever missed the cut. This year should be no different for Thunderbolts*, which is the planned last film of the MCU Phase Five.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (5/23)
The first of the unanimously-selected movies in what should be an explosive Memorial Day weekend. In fact, I’ve read that this year could be the highest-grossing Memorial weekend box office ever. To this day I cannot understand how 2023’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One fared so poorly (finished #8 at $168M). Tracking was at $230M thanks to 96%/95% RT ratings, an ‘A’ CinemaScore, and $15M earned in Thursday previews. And then it just… didn’t. Was it due to Barbenheimer? Was it the 2.5 hour runtime? Was it the “Part One” part of the title which audiences appear to now hate? I, for one, enjoyed the hell out of the movie and hope that this Final Reckoning sendoff for TC is a smash.
Lilo & Stitch (5/23)
Only 1 player didn’t pick Disney’s live action remake of the 2002 hit that pulled in $145M. Average placement for this version is 3.0 with 14 players making it their #1 pick. This movie is the other half of what is to be a huge Memorial Day weekend, and is currently tracking to be the bigger of the two for the summer ($408M vs $205M). L&S is the first major family tentpole of the summer season and that avg. placement looks solid. It’s got Hawaii! It’s got Stitch! It’s got action! It’s got it all!
Karate Kids: Legends (5/30)
2010’s Karate Kid came out of nowhere to earn $176M and take the #7 spot (in a very odd year of the SMP), and considering the huge success of the Netflix series Cobra Kai (Season 6 just ended 3 months ago) it’s easy to see why 17 players have it on their list. I might be one of the few here who has never watched Cobra Kai, so I’m going out on a limb that Daniel – San’s presence will bring in $$$ for Legends. Right?? Average placement is only 8.5, so this is one of those risks that will make or break the summer for some. Sand the floor!
From the World of John Wick: Ballerina (6/6)
25 players are hoping that the recent success of the John Wick series (2019’s JW3 did $171M and 2023’s JW4 did $187M) will carry over to this summer’s spinoff, Ballerina. I originally dismissed the announcement of a spinoff as completely unnecessary and unwanted… but that was until Ana de Armas(!) was cast in the title role. And who didn’t enjoy seeing her wield a gun (in heels, no less) in No Time To Die? So believable! Early trailer reception was positive, and the actual presence of John Wick (even if only in a cameo scene) can only help. I mean, it’s not like it was just a TV newscast still shot (ahem, The Bourne Legacy). Average placement is also 8.5, so this true swing-pick is another risky one.
How to Train Your Dragon (6/13)
The first 3 HTTYD movies are a testament to diminishing returns ($217M – $177M – $160M), but I have to say that the trailer for this year’s live-action remake of the 2010 original looks just fantastic. Handing over the reins to the same director of the animated trilogy could prove to be genius as the remake is currently tracking to be highest of the franchise at $230M. Only 1 player didn’t pick it, and for those that did it has an average placement of 5.1. It’s even got a #1 selection by 1 player.
Elio (6/20)
This year’s Pixar release was selected by “only” 32 players despite the fact that no prior Pixar has ever missed the cut. Pixar has proven to be a no-brainer pick, and if there ever was any doubt we only have to look back at 2023’s Elemental, which turned a shockingly-low $29M opening into a $151M finish thanks to amazing week-over-week holds. Opening 1 week after HTTYD, Elio is currently tracking for a $39M opening and $201M total. That’ll work for a movie with an average placement of just 7.6.
28 Years Later (6/20)
Opening the same weekend as another major pick but for a completely different audience, 17 players have staked their claim on what they believe will be the most successful horror movie of the summer. Never mind that the first 2 movies of the franchise have grossed a combined $73M, this third release (22 years after #2) has upped the ante with bigger stars and the return of Danny Boyle as Director. An average placement of 8.6 proves to be another risky pick.
F1: The Movie (6/27)
17 players are hoping this newest Formula One racing movie is more Ford v Ferrari ($117M) than Gran Turismo ($44M). Another risky selection with a 8.4 average placement, but with early tracking of a $51M opening and $190M total haul F1 could prove to be a better selection than I originally gave credit. Don’t get me wrong, it looks slick and I will most definitely be seeing it at the theater in Dolby. And thank goodness they tacked on “The Movie” to the title or we’d never know the difference. Whew. “Always remember, if you ain’t first, you’re last.”
Jurassic World: Rebirth (7/2)
July 4th weekend gets an early Wednesday start with a return to the $6B franchise. Unanimously picked with an average placement of 2.1, Rebirth was the most selected #1 this summer (19 players). Just like the first Park trilogy ($407M – $229M – $181M), the second World trilogy ($653M – $417M – $376M) suffered diminishing returns after an explosive start. With Gareth Edwards directing the first of a new trilogy(?), hopefully he keeps the hokeyness in check and brings a legitimate reason to continuing the franchise (other than $$$).
Superman (7/11)
Immediately after July 4th weekend’s potential #1 we get another potential #1 in Superman. Also unanimously picked with an average placement of 3.1, DC and Warner Brothers are taking another crack at bringing the Supes franchise to the same level as their beloved Batman. This time, however, we have James Gunn running the DCU show, and who are we to say he won’t succeed? Knowing what we’ve seen from the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise, The Suicide Squad, the Peacemaker series, and one of my personal favorites: the Creature Commandos series, Gunn may just be able to breathe new (and FUN) life into Superman. The 5 players who picked it #1 sure hope so.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps (7/25)
The last of the ‘major’ movies, this newest MCU version of F4 is fully expected to be the best of them all (not a tall order considering the incredible bust that was the 2015 reboot). The retro-futuristic look of the trailers is refreshing, especially considering that this is a comic that was introduced in 1961. The MCU has teased audiences with related characters/events multiple times in recent movies (3x to be exact), and clearly there is an appetite for the F4 to be done right. Unanimously picked with an average placement of 5.0, and 3 players having it as their #1, First Steps kicks off Phase Six of the MCU.