2012 Summer Movie Pool

5/17/12

3 new movies come out this weekend, but only 24 combined selections among them. Interestingly, David G., Clint and Gretchen have each selected 2 of the 3. Best of luck to you, as Avengers looks to dominate once again.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Avengers - 56.5m (459.2m)
2) Battleship - 47m (47m)
3) The Dictator - 18.5m (28.5m)
4) What To Expect When You're Expecting - 15m (15m)
5) Dark Shadows - 14m (52.5m)
6) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 4.3m (9.3m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Battleship = 37% (36% by the Top Critics)
The Dictator = 62% (59% by the Top Critics)
What To Expect When You're Expecting = 26% (33% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
Battleship = 3,690
The Dictator = 3,008
What To Expect When You're Expecting = 3,021

5/16/12

A double-whammy by Chapman!

5/15/12

I'm back! And a big thanks to David for taking care of the Pool while I was living it up Euro-style. What's that? You want to see some pics? I created a big FB photo album... so go there to see. I'll prob post a couple here, you know, since I can. In the meantime, let's enjoy 2012's first movie poster from Chapman:

5/13/12

From the Desk of David Logan

Current Top 10:

The Avengers continued to roll this weekend and had no trouble at all extending its stranglehold on the box office. Marvel's superhero team-up fell 50 percent to an estimated $103.2 million, which is by-far the best second weekend ever ahead of Avatar's $75.6 million. It also topped The Dark Knight for best second weekend hold for a movie that opened to more than $120 million. Other new records include fastest movie to $300 million and $350 million, and highest eight-day, nine-day, and ten-day grosses. Through Sunday, The Avengers is estimated to have earned $373.2 million, which ranks 18th on the all-time domestic chart. It's now inevitable that the movie will finish above $500 million, and it should also claim third place on the all-time chart ahead of The Dark Knight ($533.3 million).

Oh yeah ... Dark Shadows released this weekend too! I don't think anyone noticed though and it is a shame. Even though everyone knew Dark Shadows wouldn't compete with The Avengers, its estimated $28.8 million opening is still a bit of a disappointment.

It's underwhelming debut can be attributed to a handful of factors, not the least of which was the tough release date. The second weekend of May is a notoriously difficult time to open a movie, as Warner Bros. experienced with Poseidon, in 2006 ($22.2 million) and Speed Racer in 2008 ($18.6 million).

Next weekend: Three of the top long shots of the summer! With only 4 people taking The Dictator, 14 people taking Battleship, and only 6 people taking What to Expect When You're Expecting, it should be a defining moment for the summer.

5/11/12

From the Desk of David Logan

Dark Shadows is our first long shot of the summer considering only 14 of you took it. It looks like a funny movie but it is not projecting well. It will not be easy having to go up against The Avengers.

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Avengers - 111m (257m)
2) Dark Shadows - 33m (33m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
Dark Shadows = 41% (39% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
The Avengers = 4,349
Dark Shadows = 3,755

5/6/12

From the Desk of David Logan

Current Top 10:

The Avengers kicked off the Summer movie season making $200 million in its first weekend! I would say that was a pretty successful opening considering it had a budget of $200 million. That is a record by the way. It knocked off Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 which had an opening weekend of $169 million. It also had the seventh widest opening ever at 4,349 locations.

Next weekend: Dark Shadows. Out of the 41 overall picks, only 14 of you picked it.

5/4/12

Where's The Date Movie, Where's the Comedy?
From the Desk of David Logan

Us old veterans know it ... we feel it in our gut. We just know we have missed it. There is that voice in the back of our brain speaking to us, "Where is the date movie? Where is the hilarious comedy?". I know I am worried.

This is clearly a year of surprises. Can we really expect all of these action movies to make it? Every year it proves true that the hidden comedy or date movie will ALWAYS emerge and screw it up for everyone. The Proposal, Monster In Law, Bridesmaids, Grown Up's, The Hangover, Knocked Up, The Devil Wears Prada, Wedding Crashers, and Dodgeball. Each of these movies crushed our dreams.

I think this year may once again show the winners will be to the right of the grid. The rookies ... the unconventional one's. I don't know what movie it will be ... but rest assured, a date movie or a comedy will screw it up for most of us. That is why I love this thing called the Summer Movie Pool. Plan and prepare all you want ... only two people have ever gotten all 10 picks correct. Good luck everyone and I look forward to anothe great summer of movies!

5/4/12

Everyone please take a moment to verify your selections on both the Picks and Current Standings pages. There have been a couple edits made already due to errors on my part ("Bad Steve!"), and those have been fixed (now no one took Neighborhood Watch). And the best part is that this server is so jacked, I can't even fix them myself. More work for David! :)

5/4/12

No surprise here as all 40 of us took The Avengers. I'm curious when everyone plans on seeing it. I know Matt took his kids to see it at midnight. What a trooper!

Boxoffice.com's predictions for this weekend:
1) The Avengers - 170m (170m)

Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
The Avengers = 92% (85% by the Top Critics)

Theater count:
The Avengers = 4,349

Next weekend: The 'wildcard' movie of the summer, with 14 people taking Dark Shadows. It has the clout to be a Top 10 movie... but is the interest really there? Kurt's got it #4 on his list, so it MUST be good, right?

5/3/12

Finally got the Picks and Grid posted (no thanks to Kurt), and the 2012 Summer Movie Pool is now LOCKED. Game on! I'm proud of myself that I've been able to come up with this analysis in the midst of packing for tomorrow's flight. My wife on the other hand......

To start, we lost about 12 people from 2011, but happened to gain 9 newcomers. Welcome!! That makes it 40 entries this year (you'll notice entry #41 on the Grid in honor of our friend, Stephen Butters). For you newbies, you've already done the hard part: making your selections. Once again we've experienced a summer where Hollywood felt the need to crammmmm all of their big event films into a small window. Some will perform big time. Others? Let's just say that jobs will be lost once their films get swallowed up due to poor release strategery. And all of that has forced us to pick just 10 movies out of what I consider to be a list of 15-20 legit box office draws. So now for the next 4 months you get to sit back and enjoy the summer while we (I'm including David in this who will be making posts in my absence) make weekly updates for your entertainment.

When looking at the Grid of everyone's selections I was pleased to see that even with fewer people playing, we actually had more movies selected than last year (26 vs. 21). Great to see people taking chances. Me? I played it safe, as I'm still feeling the sting of Dinner For Schmucks. The Grid is pretty much formatted with the most verteran players to the left... to the new folks on the right. However, Chapman requested that I group all you BioHorizons folks together for your own trash talk, so you're all the way to the right. It's actually interesting to see just how the movies were picked. It's a tighter group of selections on the left-hand side... and then it spreads out gradually as you get to the right (except for Kristen, who is counting on an unprecedented THREE August movies making the cut - good luck). The sad point is I'm afraid that those of us who have played for a long time are now starting to think too much alike in our selections. Now that doesn't mean any of the vets will win anything. Last year we had 3 newcomers take all 3 prize placements. And just look at the 2010 Final grid. Pretty ugly on the left-hand side. Crazy things can happen.

Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each 'major' movie (10+ selections):

The Avengers
40 people / Avg placement = 1.9 / Highest placement = 1
A no-brainer, as everyone picked it. Top-2 movie for sure.

Dark Shadows
14 people / Avg placement = 7.9 / Highest placement = 4
IMO the biggest 'wildcard' movie of the summer. Personally, it was tough picking against Johnny Depp.

Battleship
15 people / Avg placement = 6.8 / Highest placement = 4
Check your brain in at the door.

Men In Black III
38 people / Avg placement = 4.9 / Highest placement = 1
The majority here believe Will Smith is still a major box office draw, despite being away for several years.

Snow White and the Huntsman
27 people / Avg placement = 7.2 / Highest placement = 4
About what I expected.

Prometheus
25 people / Avg placement = 6.4 / Highest placement = 2
Let me say that I'm shocked that this was not more widely selected. I figured it to be a lock this summer. Of course, I've been wrong plenty.

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
34 people / Avg placement = 7.1 / Highest placement = 2
Surprisingly low average placement for a major animated film.

Brave
31 people / Avg placement = 5.1 / Highest placement = 1
Wow. Not much love for Pixar this year.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation
18 people / Avg placement = 7.6 / Highest placement = 2
Say what you will about the first one (I dug it)... but it didn't have The Rock or Bruce Willis in it. Cha-ching!

The Amazing Spider-Man
38 people / Avg placement = 3.9 / Highest placement = 1
Two people might be missing out big-time. But one of them is my dad... who also was the only one to not pick that 'lock' Terminator: Salvation... which happened to not make Top 10. Hmmmm.

Ice Age: Continental Drift
36 people / Avg placement = 6.2 / Highest placement = 1
3 is simply too many animated films in one summer.

The Dark Knight Rises
39 people / Avg placement = 1.9 / Highest placement = 1
Oops. 1 person forgot to pick what will be the other Top-2 movie.

The Bourne Legacy
11 people / Avg placement = 8.6 / Highest placement = 5
A Bourne movie without Bourne? AND opening the same August weekend as Total Recall (shooting for the same demographic)? I dunnoooooooo.

No real chick-flicks this summer. The ladies are simply gonna have to 'man up' this year (just like Kurt). And how about this? ZERO love for Adam Sandler. He just can't wash off that stink from Jack and Jill. I can't wait to see how well (or poorly) it does.

Just like last year, with all of these similar selections I'll be surprised if this summer doesn't end in a tiebreaker. I recall back then considering a Top-15 for this year. But then again, if we go 15 we'll probably see the SAME 15 chosen by the majority of us. Paring the list down to 10 is what makes this summer interesting I suppose. Now a Top-20... Hmmmmm.

So with 40 entries our payouts will be pretty close to last year. With $10.00 covering the cost of the website itself, we now have a pot of $390.00. And keeping in line with previous summers this year's payouts will be the following:

1st Place - $300.00
2nd Place - $60.00
3rd Place - $20.00
Bonehead Award - $10.00

This actually looks like an impressive summer. I may not have picked all of them, but these are the movies I really wanna see the most: Avengers (duh), Dark Shadows, MIB III, Snow White, Prometheus, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (the true story of our 16th President), The Amazing Spider-Man (The Lizard!), Savages (that preview looked intense), Ted (the red band trailer sold me - green looked just Ok), Dark Knight Rises (duh) and Total Recall.

Thanks for all of the well-wishes for my trip. I'm super pumped for another Mediterranean Cruise (the EPIC, baby!), and this one has me hopping from Barcelona > Naples > Rome > Florence > Cannes > Monaco > Marseille > Barcelona. That last leg will be a new one for me. And I've been practicing my foreign language skills: "Franch... fries. Anddd, Franch... dressing. Anddd, Franch... bread. And to drink... tadaaa... Peru." Flying out tomorrow and I'll be back on the 15th. David will have things under control while I'm gone. But I'll still be checking in, as it's impossible for me to completely disconnect. I'm just disappointed that Avengers isn't opening until midnight tonight. Now I have to wait until I get back :( Talk to you all soon!

5/1/12

Deadline Day!! And boy the picks were rolling in fast today. I couldn't begin to guess how many total. Maybe 30ish right now? And there is still time, as I won't have the Picks and grid posted until sometime tomorrow. So just be patient and enjoy the talk on the tagboard. Oh and Chapman's latest banner too. What's that, a new banner? You bet, and I think it rocks! A fresh take on what we've rolled out in the past. I'll send an email to everyone once the entries are posted online. And those of you that have submitted but haven't yet paid... get it in fast. Talk to you all soon!

4/29/12

Took the time to do a lil' update to the website this evening. Added the old Index (Home Page) text files from 2005-2011 to the 'Previous Years' page. Now we can go back and read up on how events played out over the years. And also re-read Todd's sorta-annual rants of everyone's picks. We need that back, Todd! Don't be too concerned with the current format issues, as we'll work to fix the code.

4/27/12

With the start of the pool right around the corner.... here's an idea of what are NOT summer movies:

4/25/12

Six days left!!! The picks are starting to come in, so don't get left out. The deadline is critical, as I won't be able to add any stragglers if I'm already on a plane to Barcelona. That's right... I'm outta here on May 4th!! And I'll be quite busy on the 3rd packing and stufffffff. That means I should have everything posted to the website on the 2nd... including the banner (as long as Chapman gets off his butt and makes it). Otherwise we'll be looking at Eddie Van Chapman allllllllll summerrrrrrrr longgggggg :)

4/3/12

Welcome back everyone! Hopefully you've all received the e-mail invite and you're working on your picks. The tagboard is fresh and clean from spam, so David and I will do what we can to keep it that way. We're working on a new header banner for 2012 (looking at you, Chapman), but if you think that you can make one better... knock yourself out and send it my way. Here is the key info I sent in this year's email invite:

It's timeeeee! We are exactly 1 month out, and it's now time to start wrapping your brains around your possible selections for the 15th annual Summer Movie Pool!!!

2011 was a jump back up to 43 entries. And with that we saw Kelly Peterson win in her very first year playing with 9 correct picks. Most impressive! Kelly nearly pulled off another 10-for-10 in this pool, as she was one of the few who actually trusted Bridesmaids. But it was Rise of the Apes that snuck into #10 to botch the perfect bid. Still, she won $320 for the performance.

Then came the 2nd Place tie. With soooo many movie choices that were obvious hits to the majority of us, we actually had 23 people get 8 correct picks. And once the dust settled courtesy of the Deviation Method, thanks to 2 perfect picks and 4 other 1-pointers it was another first-timer that took the $60 2nd Place prize: Tim Haynes. 3rd Place ended up in a tie between Marinee Cabrera and myself, with each of us getting $15. And we cannot forget about the Bonehead Winner... Cindy Cozzi! Cindy actually tied for 2nd Place, but who knew that a Disney cartoon (Winnie the Pooh) would have been the worst-selected movie by any of us? That movie crushed any chance of her winning 2nd or 3rd... but it did net her $10.

2011 will be known as the summer of R-rated raunch, with Hangover 2, Bridesmaids, Horrible Bosses (hilarious) and Bad Teacher all earning $98+ million. It was the summer of too many superhero films, as Green Lantern (ouch) wasn't able to join the party. DC Comics still has much to learn with their other properties. And 2011 also introduced us to Rosie Huntington-Whiteley. Enough said :)

Here are our previous winners:

2011 - Kelly Peterson
2010 - Kurt Weierstall
2009 - Steve Berg
2008 - Justin Klein
2007 - Tim Driscoll
2006 - Steve Berg
2005 - Larry Pennington
2004 - Chic Meyers
2003 - Todd Fiore / Dave Logan / Jaime McGauley (tie)
2002 - Steve Berg
2001 - Steve Berg
2000 - Mike Chapman
1999 - Steve Berg
1998 - Steve Berg

Don't forget, your picks and $$$ are due by May 1st (the first movie of the summer actually opens on Friday, May 4th). In fact, this year I am going to be very strict about that deadline. I'll be leaving for a 10-day Eurotrip the first week of May, and I won't have time to screw around with late entries. Once I'm gone, I'm gone... and the pool will be locked for the summer (now looking at you, Kurt).

Have your picks submitted by May 1st!!!

I'll let you all know when the picks are posted.

As a final note, I'd like to inform everyone that 2012 will be a summer where one of our own will be sorely missed. Our good friend Stephen Butters, who has played with us for the past 5 years, sadly passed away several months ago. This time of the year was certainly one of Stephen's favorites, and I enjoyed his April e-mails planning out his movie selection strategy before the final submission. He had a huge passion for movies (particularly the Harry Potters), and he was always active on our message board. Stephen was simply one of the nicest guys I've ever known. We'll definitely miss you, buddy. But we'll still keep a spot for you in the Standings this year :)

2/28/12

We're Up and Running!
From the Desk of David Logan

Looks like the site has been transferred. Please let Steve or me know if you encounter any issues.

2/1/12

We're in the process of moving the website over to a new server, so bear with us while this transfer takes place. We'll see you all in a few months! - Steve