Our third weekend of the summer was a quiet one, making it a perfect time for some quick analysis and commentary of our 2026 Summer Movie Pool picks.
Of the original 100+ movies eligible to be selected in this year’s pool as per Box Office Mojo, 47 total were considered to be ‘Wide’ release. For the first time ever, our entire group stuck to this reduced list with none chancing a ‘Limited’ release. So with this year’s field taking fewer risks we only have 18 different movie selections (down from the 20 selected in 2025). No movies have shifted entirely out of the summer timeframe (so far), so everything selected is currently in play.
While making my own personal picks I counted 9 legit options for Top 10 status, with only 2 to decide for that #10 spot. But of course, we’ve seen time and time again that anything can happen. Over the duration of the SMP we’ve had 14 movies make Top 10 that weren’t selected at all, and we only have to go back to last year where Weapons finished #10 at $132M. As I always to say to those who’ll listen, nobody really knows anything when it comes to the summer box office.
Below are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie (10+ selections this year). The majority of picks once again gravitated around the same collection of movies, so placement will most certainly be critical.
This summer’s tracking:
- 12 movies selected by 10+ players (12 in 2025).
- 3 different movies selected at #1 (6 in 2025).
- 5 movies selected unanimously (4 in 2025).
- 1 weekend with multiple ‘major’ movies selected (2 in 2025).
- 0 ‘major’ selections in the month of August (0 in 2025).
- 5 different movies selected by just 1 player (3 in 2025).
| Total Picks | #1 Picks | Avg. Placement | Highest Pick | Lowest Pick | ||
| 5/1 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 33 | – | 7.0 | #3 | #10 |
| 5/8 | Mortal Kombat II | 13 | – | 9.5 | #8 | #10 |
| 5/22 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 38 | – | 5.5 | #3 | #9 |
| 6/5 | Scary Movie | 22 | – | 9.6 | #8 | #10 |
| 6/5 | Masters of the Universe | 13 | – | 8.7 | #4 | #10 |
| 6/12 | Disclosure Day | 28 | – | 8.2 | #6 | #10 |
| 6/19 | Toy Story 5 | 38 | 14 | 1.8 | #1 | #9 |
| 6/26 | Supergirl | 34 | – | 7.1 | #2 | #10 |
| 7/1 | Minions & Monsters | 37 | 1 | 3.9 | #1 | #8 |
| 7/10 | Moana | 38 | – | 4.9 | #2 | #9 |
| 7/17 | The Odyssey | 38 | – | 4.5 | #2 | #8 |
| 7/31 | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 38 | 23 | 1.7 | #1 | #6 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 (5/1)
No Marvel flick to kick off Summer 2026, but this sequel to the 2006 hit ($125M) was tracking a $100M opening a month prior to release. With no real competition for its core audience, this one certainly has room to run. 33 players get an early lock, with one player having it as high as #3.
Mortal Kombat II (5/8)
As counter-programming to Prada 2, 13 players are taking a shot at bloody fun with Mortal Kombat II. The 2021 reboot was an early release during the Covid-impacted return to theaters, and its $42M total gross was further hindered by the studio decision for day-and-date simultaneous release on HBO Max. Gotta get those subs, right? Early tracking improved to a potential $50-60M opening, giving real hope to those who picked it.
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (5/22)
It’s been seven years since the last theatrical Star Wars release (2019’s Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker), and Disney is really hoping the stench of that final trilogy has dissipated enough to bring moviegoers back. The first of FIVE unanimous selections (38 players), the fate of the SW franchise is now on cute little Grogu. Current tracking is an opening of $90-100M, with a potential $105-115M through the 4-day holiday weekend. The challenge Disney will still face, however, is the appetite for fans of the streaming series to go out to the theater vs. being patient enough to see at home. Disney is claiming that it will not be available for streaming for 60 days after its premiere. We shall see.
Scary Movie (6/5)
The weekend of June 5 will be pivotal for the SMP as it is the only one to have multiple major releases going head-to-head. A true swing pick this summer, 22 players selected Scary Movie (the 6th in the franchise). Based on prior movie performances featuring Anna Faris (SM1 = $157M, SM2 = $71M, SM3 = $110M, SM4 = $90M) the results appear promising after a 20-year hiatus. It should be fun seeing Anna and Regina Hall back together, and with current opening weekend tracking at $41M everyone here should definitely go see it! Definitely. Twice. Please.
Masters of the Universe (6/5)
As the other competitor of the head-to-head matchup, MoTU is staring at a projected $32M opening weekend. Both movies would appear to be targeting the same audience, which would ultimately hurt all involved. MoTU might hope to skew younger based on it being based on a 1980’s cartoon, but do kids today even care about this? The nostalgia factor might be its only hope, as trailers looked meh with a relative unknown cast as He-Man and a completely unrecognizable Jared Leto as Skeletor. And neither embody the expected physique of the characters. 13 players (including one who has it at #4) are holding their breath.
Disclosure Day (6/12)
Steven Spielberg and Sci-Fi go hand-in-hand, and an original story with a cast led by Emily Blunt is exactly what this summer needs. Solid marketing with a mysterious plot has helped ramp up interest over the past month, with an opening projection currently in the $45-59M range. Should word-of-mouth be strong we could see this once cruise for a full month with little direct competition for the targeted audience. 28 players certainly hope so.
Toy Story 5 (6/19)
This is the same weekend Disney locked up last year for Elio, but unlike that disaster (the first time ever that a Pixar film failed to make Top 10) Toy Story 5 will be fighting for the top spot. Our second unanimous selection with a 1.8 average placement, this will be the ultimate Disney correction with 14 players having it as their #1. Early tracking is at $350M, but knowing the prior franchises successes of Toy Story 3 ($415M) and 4 ($434M) we can safely assume it’ll track higher. An easy selection.
Supergirl (6/26)
2025’s Superman, which surprisingly finished #2 in the SMP at $354M, introduced the character Supergirl in the final cameo scene as a teaser for this summer. Now getting her own movie for the first time since Helen Slater donned the cape in 1984, Supergirl is currently tracking to finish in the $160-180M range. 34 players selected this second film in James Gunn’s DC Universe, including a #2 placement. As the trailers have shown, Supergirl doesn’t have the same positive outlook as Superman, making for a darker tone. With Gunn calling the shots this one could be interesting.
Minions & Monsters (7/1)
Surprisingly not a unanimous selection despite a 3.9 average placement (including a #1), as one player either completely overlooked Minions & Monsters… or is just completely sick of the overall franchise. This third installment of the spin-off Minions follows the previous $336M (2015) and $371M (2022), and to no surprise is already tracking $330M a month and a half out. Another easy selection. RIP to the player who didn’t pick it.
Moana (7/10)
After the success of 2025’s live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch, which finished #1 in the SMP at $423M, there should be no delusions that the live-action remake of Moana (also starring Dewayne Johnson) will make bank considering that the 2016 animated original earned $249M and its 2024 sequel earned $460M(!). Our third unanimous selection with a highest placement at #2 is currently tracking at $237M and climbing rapidly. Another year of a real-world Hawaiian backdrop means another year I’ll be seeing it at the theater.
The Odyssey (7/17)
You had me at Christopher Nolan. We know the cinematography and scale are going to be epic. We believe the sound will be amazing. We hope the dialogue will be… wait… Matt Damon didn’t really yell out “Let’s go!” did he? Well, I guess we are getting contemporary American English dialogue and American accents in this one. Any room for “Dude, where’s my car?” The Odyssey is our fourth unanimous selection with a highest placement at #2. Current tracking is $280-300M. Just be prepared for mixed reviews.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day (7/31)
Our final unanimous selection (and third in a row) ends the summer run on a high note, leading with a pool-best 23 #1 picks and a 1.7 average placement. Current tracking is at $415-430M, and considering the prior Tom Holland-franchise performances of $335M (2017), $391M (2019), and $815M (2021) the only thing hindering its summer box office potential is the 8/31 cutoff limiting it to only five full weekends. Some of us (me included) kind of overlooked that fact. But still… cha-ching!