We have four new Wide releases this weekend with Disney’s live-action Moana (unanimously selected) leading the way. As with other big ticket movies in prior weeks, Moana’s tracking has steadily dropped from $75-96M one month ago down to this week’s $57-72M. With BOT seemingly on hiatus we are left with Boxoffice Pro’s forecast, who are far more bearish with an opening weekend of just $45-55M. The 2016 original animated film opened to $56M, and its 2024 animated sequel exploded with a $139M opening. Clearly there is concern with Moana stacked atop an already lively box office competition between Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters. Not quite sure what Disney was thinking introducing Moana so soon after TS5, but here we are. It also doesn’t help that the only review we have so far (RT Critics) is AWFUL at just 35%. Wow.
We additionally get the latest in horror with Evil Dead Burn (1 player), that should see a nice $25-30M opening. The tone of the Evil Dead franchise has shifted from horror… to horror-dark humor… to horror-silly… and back to straight horror. This is the third straight in horror tone, and $25-30M could become a franchise opening record after 2013’s Evil Dead reboot ($25M) and 2023’s Evil Dead Rise ($24M).
Boxoffice Pro have really thrown in the towel on their weekend forecasts, leaving us with only a Top 3. Great effort there, BOP. *slow clap* If we do get a late update from BOT we’ll update the preview.
BoxOffice Pro’s forecast for this weekend:
| # | 3-Day Wknd (M) | % Change | Total (M) | Theater Count | |
| 1 | Monoa | 45-55 | NEW | 45-55 | 3,875 |
| 2 | Evil Dead Burn | 25-30 | NEW | 25-30 | 3,004 |
| 3 | Minions & Monsters | 15-20 | -50% | 15-20 | 4,244 |
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
| All Critics | Top Critics | Verified Audience | |
| Moana | 35% | TBD | TBD |
| Evil Dead Burn | 72% | 41% | TBD |
| The Invite | 96% | 98% | 95% |
| Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass | 80% | 79% | TBD |
CinemaScore ratings:
| Score | |
| Moana | TBD |
| Evil Dead Burn | TBD |
| The Invite | TBD |
| Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass | TBD |
TBD ratings updates will be posted as they are published.