For the 3rd straight weekend our big hitter has struck out, as Disney’s live action remake of Moana couldn’t even hit the low end of its projected range with just $43M. And to think that only one month ago it was tracking at $88M. We know the critics hated it (currently 33% on RT), but the Audience who did go see it loved it (RT 90% and and A- CinemaScore). So where was everyone? Perhaps it was family movie fatigue (3rd release in 4 weeks). Perhaps it was Disney live action reboot fatigue (no explanation needed). Perhaps it was Disney Hawaii movie fatigue (just got Lilo & Stitch last summer). Perhaps it was Moana fatigue (the animated sequel just came out 2 years ago). Or perhaps it was simply Dwayne Johnson fatigue (5th movie in 3 years). Can’t blame the Disney+ effect as it had no bearing on Toy Story 5 just 4 weeks ago. Add Moana to the list of opening underachievers, as it just became our 5th ‘major’ selection to open below $45M.
Speaking of underachievers, Evil Dead Burn ($13M) opened to half its projection. Looks like that horror window slammed shut. Evil definitely died tonight for the 1 player that picked it.
Scoreboard Leaders
While both Minions and Supergirl fell short of the Top 10 one week ago to give us no new entries, both jumped in to create a bit of shakeup. The top of the Scoreboard has some new names leading with 7 correct picks.
| Rank | Name | # Top 10 Picks | Deviation Score |
| 1 | Kelly Perone | 7 | 100 |
| 2 | Mark McMahon | 7 | 101 |
| 3 (tied) | John West | 7 | 102 |
| 3 (tied) | Nathan Austin | 7 | 102 |
Top 10 IN
- #7 Minions & Monsters ($108.9M)
- #10 Supergirl ($66.2M)
Top 10 OUT
- The Sheep Detectives ($66.0M)
- Masters of the Universe ($64.5M)
Holdover News
- #1 Toy Story 5 enjoyed a $19.0M 4th weekend (with an excellent -37.3% hold) to hit the $400M plateau. At $404.2M it climbed to #55 on the All Time domestic box office list. Next on the list at #54 is 2025’s Avatar: Fire and Ash ($404.3M). At this rate it should jump at minimum 10 more spots after next weekend.
- #2 Obsession continues to crush it with a $3.8M 8th weekend thanks to another outstanding hold (-26.0%). Its $253.3M total is now at #165 All Time. Next on the list at #164 is 2011’s The Hangover Part II ($254.4M).
- Despite earning less than $100K in its 11th weekend, #3 The Devil Wears Prada 2 remains safe at $220.4M until The Odyssey or Spidey blow up.
- #4 Backrooms continues its slow crawl to $200M, as a steep drop in theaters resulted in a $1.4M 7th weekend (-54.0%). Just as with Prada 2, no current movie on the list should be able to catch it.
- #5 Mandalorian and Grogu at $177M after a $203K weekend is that line where it could be supplanted by a current movie like Minions.
- #6 Disclosure Day moves up 1 spot with a $3.3M 5th weekend (-41.7%), but its stay will definitely be short lived.
- #7 Minions & Monsters joins the list in its 2nd weekend after earning $21.1M (-42.8%). Thanks to the early $$$ from the Wednesday opening, its 2.94x multiplier is the 2nd best of the summer.
- #8 Scary Movie slides 2 spots at $107.5M after a sub-$1M 6th weekend ($415K).
- #9 Mortal Kombat II drops a spot at $79.8M, but sticks around for its 10th and likely final weekend.
- In what might be the biggest box office bomb of the year, #10 Supergirl finally cracks the list in its 3rd weekend at $66.2M. After just a $3.7M weekend (-56.3%) it’s likely a one-and-done.
Next Weekend: Can The Odyssey (our 4th of 5 unanimous selections) finally stop the slide with a much needed breakout weekend? Current tracking is at $98-132M, which is exactly where it was a few weeks ago. A nice change after repeated dropping forecasts. Fingers crossed!