Alright, your buddy Berg is back with some analysis of our 2018 Summer Movie Pool picks. Enjoy!
31 different movies were selected this summer, which is 7 more than 2017. The loss of Avengers: Infinity War may have had a little something to do with that, forcing people to go in other (some crazy) directions. Love it! Of the 31 selected, while the choices for Bonehead amazingly get uglier each year, this year we have 5 that are legit Bonehead-worthy, 2 of them being Limited-release. Here’s a tip for all: Criteria #1 for making a selection should be “Is my movie going Wide release?” If not, cross it off. Just 2 minutes of research can save someone a summer of embarrassment. While I stand by my annual advice of “nobody really knows anything”, we do know that Limited-release movies will NEVER make Top 10. But hey, for those that choose to go their own way, we thank you for the laughs 😀
Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie this summer (Wide release + a minumum 10 selections):
Life of the Party – May 11
10 people / Avg placement = 8.3 / Highest placement = 5
With the move of Infinity War, 10 players hoped to capitalize on our first real option of the summer. It didn’t work out.
Deadpool 2 – May 18
68 people / Avg placement = 3.4 / Highest placement = 1
A unanimous selection, wisely so. Early negative fanboy reviews be damned.
Solo: A Star Wars Story – May 25
67 people / Avg placement = 2.4 / Highest placement = 1
1 player doesn’t like Star Wars. Interestinggggg. Production troubles be damned.
Hereditary – June 8
11 people / Avg placement = 8.9 / Highest placement = 6
We nearly always see a horror/thriller make the cut, and if it’s going to happen in 2018 this could be the one. The buzz is big… but I didn’t think either trailer showed the goods. Def a risky pick.
Ocean’s 8 – June 8
57 people / Avg placement = 7.8 / Highest placement = 3
We have our big-name female-centric flick of the summer. And the tie-in to the original Ocean’s trilogy helps keeps dudes interested. Smart.
The Incredibles 2 – June 15
67 people / Avg placement = 2.6 / Highest placement = 1
Apparently 1 person doesn’t like Pixar. Big mistake. The original is my very favorite Pixar of all, and this is my personal #1 choice of 2018.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – June 22
68 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
Another unanimous decision. Looks better than the original JW, which startled up $652M in 2015. We’ll take half that this year. Easy lock.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado – June 29
12 people / Avg placement = 8.6 / Highest placement = 7
LOVE the bold picks, but I just couldn’t do it myself. The original made $46M in 2015, so the jump to $100M+ may be a stretch. But it is a weak list overall, so you never know.
Ant-Man and the Wasp – July 6
65 people / Avg placement = 5.0 / Highest placement = 2
It’s Marvel. Enough said. The original made $180M in 2015. This could do even more now that we are past the skeptecism. And we need to see how this ties into Infinity War.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation – July 13
49 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 4
The originals did $148M and then $169M in 2015 (so many 2015 references), so maybe the trend continues. Or just tanks. Does Adam Sandler even matter anymore? I’m thinking parents gotta take the little kids to see something.
Skyscraper – July 13
39 people / Avg placement = 8.5 / Highest placement = 6
After last year’s “confident” Rock didn’t make Top 10 (mostly due to douchey Zac Efron) we get “family man / reluctant hero” Rock. A swing movie, with just over half of us banking on this version to bring in the cash.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! – July 20
23 people / Avg placement = 8.5 / Highest placement = 6
No. Just no. I had it in my first list and couldn’t live with the selection. The original made $144M way back in 2008, and I’m not sure if there was ever a demand for another one.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout – July 27
66 people / Avg placement = 6.3 / Highest placement = 4
The ultimate summer movie franchise. Always a blast. The last one (also in… wait for it… 2015) made $195M, so all but 2 players should be feeling good about the selection.
Disney’s Christopher Robin – August 3
17 people / Avg placement = 7.9 / Highest placement = 5
A tough selection with only a teaser trailer to work with at cutoff time. Aside from the Alice sequel, Disney live action versions of their animated films have performed quite impressively.
The Meg – August 10
14 people / Avg placement = 9.2 / Highest placement = 4
I love this selection. Huge risk with only 3 full box office weekends, but could be pretty fun. And comes out right on the heels of Shark Week.
I may not have picked all of them, but these are the movies I really want to see the most in theaters: Deadpool 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, The Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdon, Under the Silver Lake, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Mission: Impossible – Fallout. I have MoviePass, so as long as it’s still operational I’ll see them all.
I hope everyone enjoys this summer as much as I will. Too bad Sponge ONCE AGAIN has identical picks as me. Stop doing that!!!
– SB
Mike Chapman