Uh oh, this is unfortunately looking like a bust of a weekend for all three new releases. The movie with the greatest impact to the pool, IF (selected by 23 players), is all over the place with projections. Boxoffice Pro forecasts $30-40M, Box Office Theory has $33-42M, Box Office Theory has $34M. Deadline has $40M. And now The Numbers has $23M. Of course, Numbers has evidently been sandbagging for the first two weekends, so perhaps an opening in the 30’s is realistic. But those RT critic scores… oof.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 (picked by 1 player) is projected at only $11M, and those RT scores are dreadful. Same thing for Back to Black (picked by 2 playes) which is only projected at $3M. At least it’s RT scores are slightly better, but they are still terrible.
The Numbers forecast for this weekend:
| # | Wknd (M) | % Change | Theater Counts | |
| 1 | IF | 23.7 | – | 4,041 |
| 2 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 23.4 | -60% | 4.075 |
| 3 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 | 11.4 | – | 2,856 |
| 4 | The Fall Guy | 10.5 | -23% | 3,845 |
| 5 | Back to Black | 3.1 | – | 2,010 |
| 6 | ||||
| 7 | Tarot | 2.1 | -39% | 2,334 |
| 8 | ||||
| 9 | ||||
| 10 |
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
| All Critics Score | Top Critics Score | Audience Score | |
| IF | 49% | 43% | 87% |
| The Strangers: Chapter 1 | 17% | 12% | 45% |
| Back to Black | 34% | 34% | 80% |
CinemaScore ratings:
| Score | |
| IF | A |
| The Strangers: Chapter 1 | C |
| Back to Black | B+ |